The National Rally's Electoral Success

Introduction

The 2024 European Parliament elections saw significant gains for far-right parties in various countries, representing an important shift in EU-level politics. In particular, one of the biggest successes came from the National Rally (RN), which came in first place in France. The RN's recent electoral success is the result of a years-long rebranding effort to improve its image and appeal to voters. The party's name was changed from Front National to Rassemblement National (National Rally) in an attempt to distance the party from its antisemitic, xenophobic past. The party softened it rhetoric and moderated some of its positions. To appeal to younger voters, the RN launched a social media campaign featuring party President Jordan Bardella, a new face of the party. Ultimately, despite a taboo against voting for far-right parties, the RN has successfully gained support from voters over the years and in the 2024 election was able to attract French voters on issues such as immigration, crime, and the rising cost of living. However, despite their increasing popularity among French voters and electoral success at the EU-level, they were unable to gain the largest share of seats in the snap Parliamentary elections.

History

The National Rally was founded in 1972. Originally named the Front National and led by Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party attracted nationalists, veterans of the Algerian war, and French Vichy collaborators, and others. It opposed immigration and was committed to the doctrine "France for the French," which gave French citizens preference over noncitizens in jobs, housing, and welfare assistance. The party was overtly xenophobic and antisemitic, and due to its far-right nationalism, it remained on the fringes of French politics. While the party had a few local and parliamentary electoral successes, it remained unsuccessful in national elections. Jean-Marie Le Pen ran for the French presidency in 1974, 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2007 but was defeated in these elections.

In 2011, Jean-Marie Le Pen's daughter, Marine Le Pen, took over leadership of the party and took steps to rebrand its image. She ran unsuccessfully for the French presidency in 2012 and made it to the second round in 2017 and 2022, losing twice to Emmanuel Macron. In 2018, Le Pen renamed the party as the National Rally and took steps to soften the party's rhetoric, including removing her father from the party after making antisemitic comments. While the party retained much of its nationalist platform, it also moderated its positions on some issues, particularly on foreign policy. Most notably, the RN no longer advocated for France's exit from the European Union and for leavingNATO's integrated command. However, the RN has still retained its nationalist platform, including the doctrine of "France for the French" and its staunch anti-immigration policies. Furthermore, the party remains Eurosceptic, opposing EU regulations it perceives as negatively impacting France and threatening to reduce the country's financial contributions to the EU. This shift to moderate positions on some issues made the RN appear more palatable to voters and allowed them to secure a greater number of votes in the 2024 elections.

2024 European Parliamentary Elections

In 2024, the EU elections saw a surge in support for far-right parties. Far-right parties were predicted to make significant gains and win seats in the European Parliament. Among the most important issues for French voters were migration and the cost of living. There was also anger over the EU's Green Deal regulations that were perceived to be harmful to France's agricultural sector. The vote was a protest vote against Macron's government as well as an expression of frustration over certain issues. The National Rally won 31.4% of the vote and a total of 30 seats, largely due to a rise in support among younger voters. About 25% of French voters from ages 18-25 voted for the RN in the 2024 parliamentary election, an increase from 12% in 2022.

Efforts by the RN to change their image have been effective at attracting younger voters. Some younger voters do not associate the RN with its racist past. Social media allows the party to connect to voters, especially young voters, over the issues they care about. For example, Jordan Bardella's TikTok account contains videos that show him discussing far-right policies. Some young voters opposed immigration and crime, making them susceptible to the National Rally's messaging. Others may have also been concerned about the rising cost of living in France, another motivating factor that has resonated widely with young voters across Europe in the 2024 EU elections.

Limits of National Rally's Rebrand

An hour after the RN's victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament and declared snap elections. The election was intended to check the rise of the far-right and to prevent the National Rally from winning the presidency in 2027. However, questions remained as to whether this would be effective at stopping the National Rally. The National Rally campaigned on taking measures to address the rising cost of living, reduce migration and crime, and give preference to French citizens for public services and jobs. The party won the first round of voting with 34% of the vote and initially seemed to be in a good position to win the second round of the election.

However, during the second round, the far-left coalition the New Popular Front (NPF) and Macron's coalition Ensemble (ENS) formed another Republican Front to stop the National Rally. Additionally, the National Rally faced numerous scandals during the second round of elections. An investigation was launched into Marine Le Pen's 2022 Presidential campaign over allegations of corruption, several National Rally candidates were found to have made bigoted statements, and one candidate was pictured wearing a Nazi costume. Ultimately, these scandals remindedFrench voters about the National Rally's nationalist, racist past. Consequently, the National Rally lost the election in the second round, coming in third, behind NPF and ENS.

Implications of the National Rally's Success

Overall, the EU elections and the French legislative elections represent a shift to the right at the EU and national level. While radical right parties were denied key committee chairmanships, they could still have an impact on policy including security, immigration, and climate policy. The RN announced that they joined the Patriots for Europe, a new political group composed of far-right parties and is now the third largest political group in the European Parliament. Additionally, various center-right parties have adopted more radical right positions on certain issues to appeal to voters.

Similarly, the RN came in third in the French legislative elections, but won 37% of the vote and 142 seats, an increase of 53 seats. The results from both elections show the increasing attractiveness of the National Rally to voters. As voters become increasingly dissatisfied with establishment parties, the party will remain a viable alternative. The party could build on its recent electoral success and possibly be well positioned to win future elections, including the 2027 French President election.

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