Election 2024: What's at Stake

One of the closest and most hotly contested presidential races in our nation's history will soon be decided. To help unpack the campaign and what the voting results could mean for Americans, Siena hosted a panel discussion on Election 2024.

The October 24 panel was moderated by Laurie Naranch, Ph.D., department chair and professor of political science and international relations, and featured faculty, students, and the Siena College Research Institute.

"This is a significant election year with two candidates running in a toss-up race with two different visions for the future of the country," said Naranch. "It's important to provide a space for students and our community to ask questions of our own experts outside of a social media echo chamber or political punditry.

"We have such expertise in our Siena community from nationally and internationally recognized experts, as well as the inspiration of our students about the value of civic engagement."

Each panelist gave a five-minute insight on a specific subtopic about the race. Kevin Baron, Ph.D. assistant professor, spoke about the changing norms and expectations of the presidency, and how character matters - or doesn't matter - to voters. He discussed how Donald Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 election undermined public trust in America's electoral system.

"It resulted in a shaky transition from the Trump to the Biden presidency," said Baron. "We have now seen a major shift in what a presidential candidate's behavior looks like."

There has also been a shift in how a president's power is considered, according to Professor Leonard Cutler, Ph.D. He contrasted the visions of executive power by the two candidates, specifically referencing Trump's unitary executive model, which establishes the president as a singular authoritarian figure who relies on supreme loyalty and trust from all his advisors, with Harris drawing on a consensus model welcoming a variety of voices and perspectives from her advisors.

Taewoo Kang, Ph.D., associate professor of political communication, examined campaign news and political ads, noting the "horse race" element of much of the coverage.

"The goal of a campaign is to win the election, not necessarily inform the public," said Kang, who noted the lack of dialogue on substantive issues.

If Kamala Harris wins the election, she will be the country's first female president, just as she is its first female vice president. Professor Ausra Park, Ph.D. spoke about women leaders from an international perspective.

"The U.S. has a lot of catching up to do in this regard," she said, noting the numerous other nations led by women. "We're seeing a pattern emerge that female leaders set very high standards when they are in office. If they aren't re-elected, voters often experience 'buyer's remorse.'"

Sam Call, Ph.D., an assistant professor who is new to the political science faculty this academic year, compared populism with democratic norms, and how charismatic leaders in countries such as Hungary, Brazil and the Czech Republic lead populist movements that can result in "democratic backsliding.

"You see what's called 'executive aggrandizement,' along with the consolidation of media organizations and changes to the electoral and judicial systems," Call said. "This has impacts on other countries as well."

She welcomed the opportunity for members of the Siena community to examine various facets of the race before Election Day on November 5.

"This election will have an impact not only on policy outcomes, but also on the long-term quality of our democratic institutions and our position in global politics," said Call. "When students go to the polls, I hope they think deeply about what democracy means to them and what their role is in our democracy."

Prof. Dan Lewis, Ph.D. called the presidential race a "coin flip," with the closest polling seen in decades. He said who wins will come down to who turns out to vote, with group identity of voters being a strong factor.

"Perceived threats, as well as pride in one's group, always have an impact, and are significant motivators to vote," said Lewis, who offered insights on diversity and representation.

Travis Brodbeck, associate director of data management, spoke on behalf of the SCRI, whose polling with the New York Times has been picked up by news organizations around the world. SCRI has been rated the most accurate poll in the U.S. for two years running by FiveThirtyEight.

"Polls are not a prediction," he stressed. "They are a snapshot in time." Brodbeck noted that SCRI takes great care to ensure that its polling is scientifically representative, enabling them to extrapolate data for the entire population.

And what did the latest SCRI snapshot say about Harris-Trump? It's a statistical dead heat leading into Election Day.

The faculty were joined on the panel by Kristen Kiernan '25, who has been leading student voter registration on campus this semester, and Fortune Iheanetu '25, who offered her perspective on the election as an international student.

Melanie Attard '25 was in the audience and said one of the things she found most interesting was each professor's different perspective on the election.

"From Dr. Cutler's perspective on each candidate discussing not only their policies but also their personal backgrounds and how these factors might influence their effectiveness in office, to Dr. Park's insight on women in politics and drawing comparisons to America and other countries, it was all very thought-provoking," said Attard. "Each professor brought their own insight on each topic and made it an extremely interesting panel filled with rich dialogue about the current political climate."

Kyle Carney '27 noted that 2024 is a big year in terms of elections around the world, with America at the forefront with its close presidential race between Harris and Trump, with many swing states on the line.

"Along with the increase in polarization, the panel discussion makes me interested to see the results of the election and reactions to results depending on who wins," said Carney. "Furthermore, I am curious to see the next steps of each candidate, if their side wins."

On Wednesday, Nov. 6 - the day after Election Day - the College's Mission Office is hosting a "Unity in Stillness" gathering in the Chapel from 9AM to 11AM and again from 12:30PM to 3PM. Please stop by to take a break from the frenzy of weeks of campaign and election news coverage, and to consider the path our country will be taking forward once all the races are tallied.

"Everyone is welcome, whether you are feeling hopeful or concerned about America," said Davina Mayo Dunham '20, program coordinator for the Damietta Cross-Cultural Center, on behalf of the Mission Office. "You are free to pray, reflect or share your feelings in this space."

Light refreshments will be served.