Insights from the Fragility, Conflict, and Migration Fragile Lives 2024 session on social protection and resilience in fragile contexts

During Fragile Lives 2024, held on October 1st and 2nd, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) hosted a session titled "Fragility, Conflict, and Migration." This session showcased diverse research exploring social protection, resilience, and decision-making in fragile regions. Presentations by Kibrom Abay, Jordan Kyle, and Halefom Nigus highlighted how social assistance programs can be tailored to local contexts, the role of community leaders in aid distribution, and the mental health impacts of shocks and interventions. Furthermore, Khalid Siddig 's presentation underscored the profound economic and poverty-related impacts of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, while outlining actionable recovery strategies including leveraging the resilience of the agricultural sector, strengthening social protection systems, and securing sustained external support as critical pathways toward rebuilding the country's economy. Agnes Quisumbing and Ibrahim Elbadawi added valuable discussion, emphasizing the need for context-specific approaches and rigorous research in conflict-affected areas.

Community-based targeting: A key tool for social assistance in fragile contexts

Targeting, including proxy means targeting (PMT), has been shown to effectively identify poor households in stable situations, but too often relies on precise data typically unavailable in fragile contexts. Thus, Kibrom Abay's presentation focused on the challenges and potential of community-based targeting as an alternative to the often data-heavy method of targeting. Abay's research is based on an incentivized field experiment in conflict-affected areas and tests the efficiency of community leaders in targeting social assistance under varying budget constraints. His findings suggest that discretionary targeting by community leaders can significantly reduce exclusion errors, ensuring that more deprived households and households affected by conflict receive social assistance. During the discussion, Quisumbing noted that discretionary targeting must remain adaptable to evolving needs in order to avoid the risk of becoming either overly bureaucratic or so entrenched that it could lead to inefficiency or corruption. While cash-based transfers are not without challenges, the evidence supports their potential as a flexible and context-sensitive approach, particularly when rapid response is crucially needed in times of crisis.

Pathways to recovery in conflict zones: Sudan's economic impact

Khalid Siddig's presentation on Sudan's ongoing conflict provided a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis, leveraging the RIAPA computable general equilibrium model to assess the conflict's effects on poverty, undernourishment, and economic distribution. His research highlighted the pressing need for recovery strategies, such as revitalizing agricultural productivity, rebuilding critical infrastructure, and implementing cash transfer programs. Agricultural revitalization, specifically, is a critical lever for recovery. Under the most optimistic scenario in which the reduction in GDP in 2023 is estimated at only 12 percent relative to 2022, over 4 million people would fall under the poverty line by 2028 (No intervention in Panel A of Figure 1).Restoring agricultural productivity to its pre-conflict levels, however, could lift approximately 50 percent of these people out of poverty by 2028, highlighting the sector's pivotal role in Sudan's socioeconomic restoration. While Siddig's recommendations were thorough, his analysis of cash transfers primarily emphasized their immediate benefits for consumption. Panel B in of Figure 1 further highlights the rural-urban distribution of poverty reduction by 2025, which shows that urban areas are impacted slightly more by cash transfers (54%) and favored by infrastructural interventions (60%) compared to their rural counterparts, but rural populations are benefited the most by agricultural interventions (65%).

Figure 1. Simulated impact of the war and recovery scenarios on poor population (2024-2028)

In response, Ibrahim Elbadawi argued that when cash transfers are directed toward productive asset investments, they have the potential to contribute to long-term economic recovery. This insight prompted debate and discussion on how to integrate the investment potential of cash transfers into broader recovery strategies in a way that enhances the sustainability of these programs and transforms them into a more powerful instrument for rebuilding livelihoods in conflict-affected regions.

The role of local leaders in crisis response

Echoing themes raised Abay's presentation, Jordan Kyle's research focused on the pivotal role of local leaders in crisis response. Drawing on interviews with nearly 3,000 community leaders in Mali-including elected officials, civil servants, traditional and civil society leaders, as well as women's and youth leaders-and an aid allocation game, Kyle finds that while cash transfers are often favored for their efficiency, local leaders in Mali see value in diversifying aid modalities and timing. This includes using limited budgets for both emergency food assistance and resilience initiatives, as well as implementing anticipatory action (AA) programming alongside traditional humanitarian response. Kyle's study further highlights both a divergence in aid preferences across governance levels and a difference in viewpoints about AA based on prior experience with this type of programming and on the accuracy of local early warning systems. Kyle concludes that donor engagement should involve all levels of governance, especially at the village level, and Quisumbing emphasized that Kyle's conclusion reinforces Abay's findings on community-based targeting. Relying on community leaders who have in-depth knowledge of local conditions can be essential to effectively reach the poor and respond quickly during crises.

Figure 2. Preferences for aid types across governance levels

Mental health and cash transfer: A crucial nexus

Armed conflicts are associated with increased symptoms of stress and depression (Figure 3), and even more so among women (Figure 4). Thus, Halefom Nigus's research presentation delved into the mental health impacts of cash transfers in fragile settings, particularly among women and low-income households. Based on the experiment presented by Kibrom Abay and data collected during conflict, Nigus found that cash transfers significantly reduce stress and depression symptoms, particularly in women exposed to conflict. These findings highlight the broader benefits of cash transfers beyond basic needs-they provide psychological relief and support mental health. However, Nigus also identifies the potential harm caused by exclusion errors in the targeting of cash transfer programs. Households that are eligible but excluded from assistance experience deterioration in mental health outcomes, emphasizing the need for accurate targeting.

Quisumbing remarked that these findings are not only significant and policy-relevant but also align well with the insights from Abay and Kyle. Nigus's discovery that excluding eligible households from cash transfers can worsen mental health underscores the harmful effects of exclusion errors. Abay's work suggests that community-based targeting, which typically reduces exclusion errors, may be more effective at identifying poor households and those at higher risk of mental illness. Kyle's emphasis on local knowledge further highlights the critical role community leaders play in fragile and conflict settings. Altogether, these findings reinforce the need for adaptable, community-centered approaches in addressing vulnerability, especially in fragile contexts.

Figure 3. Mental health by conflict exposure

Figure 5. Mental health by gender

Key takeaways: Flexibility and community engagement in fragile settings

The research presented during the Fragile Lives underscores the complexity of providing effective social protection in fragile and conflict-affected settings. One common thread emerged: the importance of community-based targeting and local engagement to ensure that aid reaches those most in need. Whether through reducing exclusion errors, addressing local preferences for aid modalities, or recognizing the mental health benefits of cash transfers, these studies highlight the necessity of tailoring interventions to the unique needs of communities in crisis.

As conflicts and crises continue to destabilize regions like Sudan, Mali, and Ethiopia, policymakers and donors must remain agile and responsive to changing conditions on the ground. Effective social protection requires not only accurate targeting but also deep engagement with local leaders and communities to ensure that aid is both equitable and impactful. These findings offer valuable lessons for improving resilience and delivering aid in fragile contexts, providing a roadmap for future efforts in conflict-sensitive social assistance programs.

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