The Legacy of Camp David: The United States, South Korea, and Japan to Establish a Trilateral Secretariat

Critical Questions by Victor Cha

Published September 25, 2024

Yesterday, the foreign ministers of the United States, South Korea (ROK), and Japan met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) high-level week and reiterated the decision to establish a trilateral secretariat this year.

Q1: What is the significance of the creation of a U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral secretariat?

A1: This idea was first raised in the May 2024 vice minister trilateral meeting and press conference. The foreign ministers reaffirmed this commitment in writing yesterday; moreover, they have set the end of 2024 as the timeline for establishing this new institution.

With leadership changes expected in two of the three capitals, the creation of this trilateral secretariat represents an important effort by the three allies to institutionalize trilateral cooperation for the future. Leaders and summits come and go, but a permanent institution like a secretariat ensures that there is follow-through on all of the summit-directed initiatives. Unlike the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, which was established among China, Japan, and South Korea in 2011, this new U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral secretariat promises to be a substantive institution, implementing initiatives drawn from the 50-plus trilateral meetings that have been held since the Camp David summit.

Q2: Is there any precedent for such a grouping among the three allies?

A2: No. The closest approximation would be the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) established during the Clinton administration in 1999, but the TCOG focused primarily on planning for North Korea contingencies. Beyond the TCOG, any other trilateral meetings between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo-whether on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the UNGA, or other forums-were ad hoc, given the absence of any established and regular consultation mechanism.

Despite the formation of the U.S. alliances with Japan and South Korea in 1951 and 1953, respectively, it is extraordinary that there was never a formal trilateral institution bringing together the United States' two key allies in Asia. The absence of such an institution spoke to the deep historical animosities between South Korea and Japan.

Q3: How will China and North Korea respond to this development?

A3: Not well. Beijing and Pyongyang will claim that the United States is forming an Asian NATO and destabilizing the region's security. But their anger belies a genuine concern that the United States has demonstrated unusual and unique success in consolidating the three-way relationship in ways inimical to their interests. China and North Korea have already been accusing the Biden administration of "Asia's NATO-ization" in bringing together different plurilaterals, such as the Quad, AUKUS, and trilateral relationships between U.S.-Japan-Australia and U.S.-Japan-Philippines, among others.

Q4: What will be the added value of this new institution?

A4: Since the Camp David summit, there have been many areas of trilateral cooperation: security cooperation (e.g., multi-year joint military exercises, ballistic missile defense, and responses to North Korean cyber activities), regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., development finance, trilateral maritime security, and development and humanitarian response policy dialogues), economic and technology cooperation (e.g., women's empowerment initiatives, supply chain early warning systems, and technology standards), and to people-to-people cooperation.

Two of the most significant yet challenging goals would be (1) a trilateral free trade agreement and (2) a trilateral collective defense statement that an attack against one is an attack against all. There are many domestic obstacles and political sensitivities in all three countries that make these hard to achieve. Nevertheless, this new secretariat provides a solid foundation for the next set of leaders to build on the legacy of Camp David.

Victor Cha is senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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