Leveraging Technology to Adapt to a Water-Scarce Future

As of mid-2024, global temperatures already averaged 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, setting this year up to be the hottest in history, with several regions globally also experiencing record dryness.

While reducing emissions remains crucial, emerging economies must also prepare for a future of growing heat. Most urgently, water resources will remain stressed due to unsustainable demand and decreasing renewable supply. Climate adaptation has been a global priority since the 1992 Earth Summit, which established the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nonetheless, in 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report stated that gaps between adaption action taken and what is needed are increasing.

Water resources are undervalued, underpriced and poorly managed.

Enhancing drought resilience requires a multifaceted approach that involves integrated policy interventions, infrastructure financing and nature-based solutions. For example, some successful recent reforms have begun reducing demand and increasing conservation in Singapore, Australia and Uzbekistan.

Appropriate technology solutions can support the implementation of water governance reforms and facilitate the implementation of localized strategies. The implementation of advanced monitoring sensors and earth observation can provide transparency into water overuse and help understand threats. Wetland restoration, improved irrigation and water harvesting and recycling can support conservation to build resilience. And finally, early-warning systems and integrated modeling can prepare communities in times of disaster, enabling them to respond to emergencies.

Ultimately, technology is not a solution by itself but can support efficient resource use. The uptake in adaptation technology remains limited, however. This is partly due to information asymmetry between those that have technology solutions and those that need them. The transfer of technology is hence more important than ever, particularly for vulnerable regions.

Growing Threat of Drought in Asia

As floods, storms and other climate risks have intensified in Asia, unsustainable demand has led to a chronic risk in the background: that of water stress. This pressure has intensified because of dwindling water supplies, altered precipitation patterns and intensifying evaporation in warmer temperatures.

Water stress can result in catastrophic long-term effects. A World Bank study on internal migration analyzed 64 countries between 1960 and 2015 and found that 10% of the increase in global migration owed to water deficits. The United Nations has designated drought's chronic effects a "slow and silent killer… steadily reducing supplies of water and food."

Roughly two in three people globally live in water basins experiencing water stress at least part of the year; and extreme droughts are already depleting groundwater levels with devastating effects. In 2023, precipitation levels fell to their lowest in large parts of the Turan Lowland, the Hindu Kush and the Himalayas, as well as around the Ganges and the lower course of the Brahmaputra river. About 85% of those affected by drought live in low- or middle-income regions. As a result, the Famine Early Warning System Network reports ongoing food insecurity across Central and South America, Southwest Asia and Africa.

Potential of Adaptation Technologies

Water scarcity is categorized as economic scarcity, resulting from unsustainable demand and insufficient water infrastructure; and physical scarcity, caused by local ecological conditions. A combination of the two leads to water stress, where regions experience simultaneous over-extraction, low rainfall and inadequate water storage facilities.

Source: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). 2023. Global Drought Snapshot 2023.

Comprehensive drought adaptation measures must address both economic and physical scarcity. Adaptation technologies can support necessary governance reforms through three strategic imperatives: understanding threats, building resilience and responding to disaster.

There are several examples of this. Water sensors have been used to define management zones and prevent overconsumption. Geospatial earth observation has been used by communities to prepare for environmental risks. Additionally, machine learning techniques have created more responsive early-warning systems, while drones have been used to deliver emergency supplies and support rescue operations.

Source: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). 2023. Global Drought Snapshot 2023.

Technologies that enable drought prediction and support the increase of freshwater supply are already widely in use. For example, dynamic satellite data on rainfall, land use and elevation has been used to identify impending drought conditions and forecast groundwater levels. Similarly, water resilience technologies like atmospheric harvesting, demand-response and managed aquifer recharge have supported the American Southwest through a historic drought. Data analysis from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's (AIIB's) InfraTech Portal and the United Nations Climate Technology Centre & Network shows that the technology stack that enables adaptation to drought conditions has matured and proven successful.

Uptake in Adaptation Technology Remains Slow

Technology solutions play an important role in supporting urgently needed governance reforms-the Global Commission on Adaptation estimates that investing USD1.8 trillion in climate adaptation measures by 2030 could yield USD7.1 trillion in net benefits.

However, the uptake of climate adaptation technology remains alarmingly low in some economies. This is an issue of technology and information supply.

The share of climate adaptation inventions is roughly the same as it was in 1995. Furthermore, most inventions are concentrated in a few countries, with limited cross-border transfers, particularly in drought prevention and coastal protection. The United Nations Environment Program reported that two-thirds of all high-value patented climate adaption technologies in 2010-2015 were concentrated in only five countries and that 85% of cross-border trade of adaptation-related patents occurred between high-income countries.

Information asymmetry is another significant challenge. This manifests in limited awareness among potential users, decision-makers and vulnerable communities about available technologies. While a technology's effectiveness depends on its context, technical success in one arid region can serve as a valuable example for regions elsewhere. But the companies that provide adaptation solutions remain geographically dispersed. Moreover, global cases of successful policy reform and technology implementation remain notably diffused too.

Recent initiatives like AIIB's InfraTech Portal and the UNFCCC Climate Technology Centre & Network are working to fill sustainable water governance and climate adaptation technology gaps, but more investment is needed.

To enhance regional adaptation capacity, access to information on appropriate reforms and the benefits of adaptation technologies must be improved to align with local need, especially as easy access to successful global technology implementation cases is a public good. Overcoming these barriers will help us better prepare vulnerable communities for the impacts of drought.

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