Calamos Investments LLC

10/03/2024 | News release | Archived content

Calamos Investment Team Outlooks, October 2024

Calamos Investment Team Outlooks, October 2024

October 3, 2024

Introduction from John P. Calamos, Sr., Founder, Chairman and Global Chief Investment Officer

There was never a dull moment in the markets during the third quarter. Although inflation trended downward, and earnings announcements were favorable on the whole, economic data put investors on edge-especially releases in July that pointed to weakening employment and ongoing evidence of deteriorating business and consumer confidence. Anxiety about monetary policy ran high as investors looked for clues in every data release and Fed comment about what was coming next for interest rates-and when. This translated into rotational markets and shifting leadership, with tech stocks ceding their hold on market leadership. The Fed wasn't the only central bank that was a source of consternation, as the Bank of Japan's decision to raise rates roiled global markets as the yen carry trade unwound.

As the quarter progressed and investors became increasingly confident of a rate cut, market participants turned to the magnitude of Fed action. When the Fed announced a 50-basis point "jumbo cut," investors cheered, and the S&P 500 Index crossed new heights. Still, while the news was good for equities, small caps enjoyed an even stronger boost than large caps. Fixed-income markets also jumped, with both investment-grade and high-yield credits posting strong gains.

The final days of the quarter brought more unexpected developments. On the heels of Fed easing, China's central bank surprised markets with its own interest rate cuts, and announcements of massive fiscal stimulus.

Global Asset Class Performance

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Morningstar.

Expect Volatility from Here; Markets Hate Uncertainty

While markets ended the quarter on a bright note with solid gains across the board, we encourage investors to not become too comfortable. There are certainly many opportunities-and we believe that our teams are well-positioned to identify them through active management and bottom-up security selection.

However, markets are the pulse of the world, and there's tremendous political, geopolitical, and economic uncertainty today. The winner of the presidential election is anyone's guess, and there's every reason to expect that the votes will take an extended time to tabulate. Indeed, extraordinary events in US politics remain the norm, as we have seen this year with President Biden stepping away from his campaign and two assassination attempts on former President Trump.

This lack of clarity around politics translates into a lack of clarity around geopolitics, trade, and of course, fiscal policy. As we have emphasized throughout the years, fiscal policy has far-reaching implications for individuals, businesses, markets, and the economy as a whole. Indeed, we are at a critical juncture-the US economy is growing but the pace has clearly slowed, we're not out of the woods when it comes to inflation, and consumers and businesses are clearly worried. The markets have welcomed the start of an easing cycle, but Chair Powell has already stated that the Fed doesn't feel a sense of urgency to lower rates further, with future cuts happening "over time."

Perspectives on Asset Allocation

In this environment, we encourage investors to review the overall diversification of their portfolios. In particular, many investors may find their small- and mid-cap allocations woefully underweighted, given the historical strength of small caps at comparable stages of past cycles. Similarly, global markets are supported by country- and regional-specific growth tailwinds; allocations to global and international strategies not only provide access to different growth opportunities but also can help investors diversify away from some of the risks in US markets.

When investors have positioned their asset allocations to mitigate market downside, it lessens the temptation to time the market or make emotional decisions driven by short-term volatility. Alternative strategies can provide essential ballasts in this regard. Our suite of alternatives includes both equity and fixed-income alternatives with time-tested histories. We've also continued to expand our Calamos Structured Protection ETFs series, which offer no downside risk over a specific one-year outcome period; defined upside participation in key market indexes, to a cap; and tax alpha, by seeking tax-deferred growth inside a tax-efficient ETF wrapper.

Opportunities in All Markets

No matter the uncertainties in the markets, there are opportunities for long-term investors. In the commentaries below, our senior investment team members discuss their outlooks and share how they are positioning the Calamos Funds to capitalize on opportunities, always with an eye to managing risks.

Hard-Eyed View
Calamos Phineus Long/Short Fund (CPLIX)
Michael Grant

CMNIX: Staying on a Steady Course
Calamos Market Neutral Income Fund (CMNIX)
Eli Pars, CFA

CIHEX: A Seatbelt for the Market's Wild Ride
Calamos Hedged Equity Fund (CIHEX)
Eli Pars, CFA

Top-down and Bottom-up: The Case for Convertibles Is Strong
Calamos Convertible Fund (CICVX)
Jon Vacko, CFA and Joe Wysocki, CFA

Even When the Macro Is Murky, Global Convertibles Offer Clear Opportunities
Calamos Global Convertible Fund (CXGCX)
Eli Pars, CFA

Expanding Opportunities, Continued Equity Upside
Calamos Growth and Income Fund (CGIIX)
John Hillenbrand, CPA

Barbells and Balance: Our Prudent Pursuit of Growth
Calamos Growth Fund (CGRIX)
Matt Freund, CFA, and Michael Kassab, CFA

Powered by Stock Selection
Calamos Timpani Small Cap Growth Fund (CTSIX), Calamos Timpani SMID Growth Fund (CTIGX)
Brandon Nelson, CFA

Global Markets Weather Report: Calamos Global Opportunities Fund Edition
Calamos Global Opportunities Fund (CGCIX)
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA and Kyle Ruge, CFA

Global Markets Weather Report: Calamos Global Equities Fund Edition
Calamos Global Equity Fund (CIGEX)
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA and Kyle Ruge, CFA

Global Markets Weather Report: Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund Edition
Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund (CSGIX)
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA and Kyle Ruge, CFA

Global Markets Weather Report: Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund Edition
Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund (CNWIX)
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA and Kyle Ruge, CFA

Global Markets Weather Report: Calamos International Growth Fund Edition
Calamos International Growth Fund (CIGIX)
Nick Niziolek, CFA, Dennis Cogan, CFA, Paul Ryndak, CFA and Kyle Ruge, CFA

Sticking to Our Knitting: Core, Quality and Diversified Investing
Calamos Antetokounmpo Sustainable Equities Fund (SROIX)
Jim Madden, CFA, Tony Tursich, CFA and Beth Williamson

Calamos Fixed Income Suite: Why Conditions Call for More Defense
Fixed Income Suite (CIHYX, CTRIX, CSTIX)
Matt Freund, CFA, Christian Brobst, and Chuck Carmody, CFA

Merger Arbitrage: Energized by All-Stock Transactions in Oil & Gas
Calamos Merger Arbitrgage Fund (CMRGX)
Jason Hill and Anthony Vecchiolla, CFA

Before investing, carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please see the prospectus and summary prospectus containing this and other information which can be obtained by calling 1-866-363-9219. Read it carefully before investing.

Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. Alternative strategies entail added risks and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not include fees or expenses and are not available for direct investment. The S&P 500 Index is considered generally representative of the US equity market and is market cap weighted. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index includes these same companies but is not market cap weighted. The MSCI All Country World ex USA Index represents the performance of global equities, excluding the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a measure of the performance of emerging market equities. The ICE BofA US High Yield Index is an unmanaged index of US high yield debt securities. The ICE BofA All US Convertible Index (VXA0) is a measure of the US convertible market. The FTSE Global Convertible Bond Index measures the performance of the global convertible. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index is a broad based benchmarks of the U.S. investment grade and global investment grade bond market, respectively. They include Treasury, government related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds. The Russell 2000 Index is a measure of US small cap performance. The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of 3,000 publicly held US companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market. The Russell 3000 Growth Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Value Index is representative of those Russell 3000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Important Risk Information. An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s). There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Your investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. The risks associated with an investment in the Fund(s) can increase during times of significant market volatility. The Fund(s) also has specific principal risks, which are described below. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the Fund's prospectus.

Foreign security risk (all funds excluding Calamos Hedged Equity Fund, Calamos Total Return Bond Fund, and Calamos Growth and Income Fund): As a result of political or economic instability in foreign countries, there can be special risks associated with investing in foreign securities, including fluctuations in currency exchange rates, increased price volatility and difficulty obtaining information. In addition, emerging markets may present additional risk due to potential for greater economic and political instability in less developed countries.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Market Neutral Income Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk, convertible hedging risk, covered call writing risk, options risk, short sale risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, liquidity risk, portfolio selection risk, and portfolio turnover risk.

The principal risks of investing the Calamos Hedged Equity Fund include: covered call writing risk, options risk (see definition below), equity securities risk, correlation risk, mid-sized company risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, portfolio turnover risk, portfolio selection risk, foreign securities risk, American depository receipts, and REITs risks.

Options Risk-the Fund's ability to close out its position as a purchaser or seller of an over-the-counter or exchange-listed put or call option is dependent, in part, upon the liquidity of the options market. There are significant differences between the securities and options markets that could result in an imperfect correlation among these markets, causing a given transaction not to achieve its objectives. The Fund's ability to utilize options successfully will depend on the ability of the Fund's investment advisor to predict pertinent market movements, which cannot be assured.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Phineus Long/Short Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, short sale risk consisting of potential for unlimited losses, foreign securities risk, currency risk, geographic concentration risk, other investment companies (including ETFs) risk, derivatives risk, Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors. The fund takes long positions in companies that are expected to outperform the equity markets, while taking short positions in companies that are expected to underperform the equity markets and for hedging purposes. The fund may lose money should the securities the fund is long decline in value or if the securities the fund has shorted increase in value, but the ultimate goal is to realize returns in both rising and falling equity markets while providing a degree of insulation from increased market volatility.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Convertible Fund include a potential decline in the value of convertible securities during periods of rising interest rates and the possibility of the borrower missing payments. The credit standing of the issuer and other factors may also affect a convertible security's investment value. Synthetic convertible instruments may fluctuate and perform inconsistently with an actual convertible security, and components of a synthetic convertible can expire worthless. The Fund may also be subject to foreign securities risk, equity securities risk, credit risk, high yield risk, portfolio selection risk and liquidity risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Convertible Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, currency risk, geographic concentration risk, American depository receipts, midsize company risk, small company risk, portfolio turnover risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Timpani Small Cap Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, and portfolio selection risk. The Fund invests in small capitalization companies, which are often more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Timpani SMID Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, and portfolio selection risk. The Fund invests in small and mid-capitalization companies, which are often more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, mid-sized company risk, foreign securities risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Growth and Income Fund include the potential for convertible securities to decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the possibility of the borrower missing payments; synthetic convertible instruments risks include fluctuations inconsistent with a convertible security and components expiring worthless. Others include equity securities risk, growth stock risk, small and midsize company risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, high yield risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Evolving World Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Equity Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, value stock risk, foreign securities risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Global Opportunities Fund include: convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk consisting of fluctuations inconsistent with a convertible security and the risk of components expiring worthless, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, equity securities risk, growth stock risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, high yield risk, forward foreign currency contract risk, portfolio selection risk, and liquidity risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos International Small Cap Growth Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, foreign securities risk, emerging markets risk, small and mid-sized company risk and portfolio selection risk. The Fund invests in small capitalization companies, which are often more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies.

The principal risks of investing the Calamos Total Return Bond Fund include: interest rate risk consisting of loss of value for income securities as interest rates rise, credit risk consisting of the risk of the borrower missing payments, high yield risk, liquidity risk, mortgage-related and other asset-backed securities risk, including extension risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos High Income Opportunities Fund include: high yield risk consisting of increased credit and liquidity risks, convertible securities risk consisting of the potential for a decline in value during periods of rising interest rates and the risk of the borrower to miss payments, synthetic convertible instruments risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, portfolio selection risk and foreign securities risk. The Fund's fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk. If rates increase, the value of the Fund's investments generally declines. Owning a bond fund is not the same as directly owning fixed income securities. If the market moves, losses will occur instantaneously, and there will be no ability to hold a bond to maturity.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Short-Term Bond Fund include: interest rate risk consisting of loss of value for income securities as interest rates rise, credit risk consisting of the risk of the borrower to miss payments, high yield risk, liquidity risk, mortgage-related and other asset-back securities risk, including extension risk and prepayment risk, US Government security risk, foreign securities risk, non-US Government obligation risk and portfolio selection risk.

The principal risks of investing in the Calamos Antetokounmpo Sustainable Equities Fund include: equity securities risk consisting of market prices declining in general, growth stock risk consisting of potential increased volatility due to securities trading at higher multiples, large-capitalization stocks as a group could fall out of favor with the market, small and mid-sized company risk, sector risk, portfolio turnover risk, and portfolio selection risk.

The Fund's ESG policy could cause it to perform differently compared to similar funds that do not have such a policy. The application of the social and environmental standards of Calamos Advisors may affect the Fund's exposure to certain issuers, industries, sectors, and factors that may impact the relative financial performance of the Fund-positively or negatively-depending on whether such investments are in or out of favor.

Calamos Antetokounmpo Asset Management LLC ("CGAM"), an investment adviser registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, serves as the Fund's adviser ("Adviser"). CGAM is jointly owned by Calamos Advisors LLC and Original C Fund, LLC, an entity whose voting rights are wholly owned by Original PE, LLC which, in turn, is wholly owned by Giannis Sina Ugo Antetokounmpo.

Mr. Antetokounmpo serves on the Adviser's Board of Directors and has indirect control of half of the Adviser's Board.

Mr. Antetokounmpo is not a portfolio manager of the Fund and will not be involved in the day-to-day management of the Fund's investments, and neither Original C nor Mr. Antetokounmpo shall provide any "investment advice" to the Fund. Mr. Antetokounmpo provided input in selecting the initial strategy for the Fund.

Mr. Antetokounmpo will be involved with marketing efforts on behalf of the Adviser.

If Mr. Antetokounmpo is no longer involved with the Fund or the Adviser then "Antetokounmpo" will be removed from the name of the Fund and the Adviser. Further, shareholders would be notified of any change in the name of the Fund or its strategy.

Structured Protection ETFs
Calamos Investments LLC, referred to herein Calamos is a financial services company offering such services through its subsidiaries: Calamos Advisors LLC, Calamos Wealth Management LLC, Calamos Investments LLP, and Calamos Financial Services LLC.

An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s). There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Your investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. The risks associated with an investment in the Fund(s) can increase during times of significant market volatility. The Fund(s) also has specific principal risks, which are described below. More detailed information regarding these risks can be found in the Fund's prospectus.

Investing involves risks. Loss of principal is possible. The Fund(s) face numerous market trading risks, including authorized participation concentration risk, cap change risk, capital protection risk, capped upside risk, cash holdings risk, clearing member default risk, correlation risk, derivatives risk, equity securities risk, investment timing risk, large-capitalization investing risk, liquidity risk, market maker risk, market risk, non-diversification risk, options risk, premium-discount risk, secondary market trading risk, sector risk, tax risk, trading issues risk, underlying ETF risk and valuation risk. For a detailed list of fund risks see the prospectus.

There are no assurances the Fund will be successful in providing the sought-after protection. The outcomes that the Fund seeks to provide may only be realized if you are holding shares on the first day of the Outcome Period and continue to hold them on the last day of the Outcome Period, approximately one year. There is no guarantee that the Outcomes for an Outcome Period will be realized or that the Fund will achieve its investment objective. If the Outcome Period has begun and the Underlying ETF has increased in value, any appreciation of the Fund by virtue of increases in the Underlying ETF since the commencement of the Outcome Period will not be protected by the sought-after protection, and an investor could experience losses until the Underlying ETF returns to the original price at the commencement of the Outcome Period. Fund shareholders are subject to an upside return cap (the "Cap") that represents the maximum percentage return an investor can achieve from an investment in the funds' for the Outcome Period, before fees and expenses. If the Outcome Period has begun and the Fund has increased in value to a level near to the Cap, an investor purchasing at that price has little or no ability to achieve gains but remains vulnerable to downside risks. Additionally, the Cap may rise or fall from one Outcome Period to the next. The Cap, and the Fund's position relative to it, should be considered before investing in the Fund. The Fund's website, www.calamos.com, provides important Fund information as well information relating to the potential outcomes of an investment in a Fund on a daily basis.

The Fund(s) are designed to provide point-to-point exposure to the price return of the reference asset via a basket of Flex Options. As a result, the ETFs are not expected to move directly in line with the reference asset during the interim period. Investors purchasing shares after an outcome period has begun may experience very different results than fund's investment objective. Initial outcome periods are approximately 1-year beginning on the fund's inception date. Following the initial outcome period, each subsequent outcome period will begin on the first day of the month the fund was incepted. After the conclusion of an outcome period, another will begin.

FLEX Options Risk The Fund(s) will utilize FLEX Options issued and guaranteed for settlement by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). In the unlikely event that the OCC becomes insolvent or is otherwise unable to meet its settlement obligations, the Fund(s) could suffer significant losses. Additionally, FLEX Options may be less liquid than standard options. In a less liquid market for the FLEX Options, the Fund(s) may have difficulty closing out certain FLEX Options positions at desired times and prices. The values of FLEX Options do not increase or decrease at the same rate as the reference asset and may vary due to factors other than the price of reference asset. Shares are bought and sold at market price, not net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable from the fund. NAV represents the value of each share's portion of the fund's underlying assets and cash at the end of the trading day. Market price returns reflect the midpoint of the bid/ask spread as of the close of trading on the exchange where fund shares are listed.

100% capital protection is over a one-year period before fees and expenses. All caps are pre-determined.

Cap Range - Cap ranges are estimates based on the last 15 trading days prior to range announcement, based on market conditions during the sample period, and are subject to change. The actual cap rate may be different based on market events.

Protection Level - Amount of protection the Fund is designed to achieve over the Days Remaining.

Outcome Period - Number of days in the Outcome Period.