Overwhelming Majority Support Prop 36 on Theft and Drug Offenses

SAN FRANCISCO, September 18, 2024-With the November election just around the corner, seven in ten likely voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 36, a measure that would increase penalties for certain theft and drug crimes. Solid majorities also favor November ballot measures that would codify in the California Constitution the right to marry regardless of sex or race (Prop 3); authorize $10 billion in state bonds for water, wildfire prevention, and climate projects (Prop 4); and make permanent the existing tax on managed health care insurance plans to provide Medi-Cal funding (Prop 35). In the presidential race, six in ten likely voters favor Vice President Kamala Harris. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Prop 36 on theft and drug offenses currently has a 45 point margin of support, with 71 percent of likely voters saying they would vote yes and 26 percent saying they would vote no. Prop 36 is favored by solid majorities across party lines (85% Republicans, 73% independents, 63% Democrats) and across regions of the state (79% Inland Empire, 74% Orange/San Diego, 73% Central Valley, 71% Los Angeles, 64% San Francisco Bay Area).

Asked which of the ten November ballot measures they are most interested in, more than one-quarter of likely voters (26%) say Prop 36, a larger share than for any other proposition. In addition, 41 percent say that the outcome of the vote on Prop 36 is very important to them, also the largest share for any of the November ballot measures.

"Proposition 36 on crime sentences currently leads in support, interest, and importance among the ten state propositions," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy. "Seventy-one percent would vote yes, and 41 percent think the outcome is very important."

More than two-thirds of likely voters (68%) say they would vote yes on Prop 3, which would amend the California Constitution to affirm the right to marry regardless of sex or race. Sixty-five percent would vote yes on Prop 4, which would authorize a $10 billion state climate bond, while 63 percent would vote yes on Prop 35, which would make permanent a tax on managed health care insurance plans (often referred to as the "MCO tax").

"Solid majorities would vote yes on Proposition 3 on the right to marriage, Proposition 4 to authorize a climate bond, and Proposition 35 on the MCO tax to help fund Medi-Cal health care services, while other state propositions receive less support," Baldassare said.

The new PPIC Statewide Survey also finds:

• Harris holds a comfortable lead in the presidential race in California. Sixty percent of likely voters say they would vote for Harris/Walz if the November 5 election were being held today. The Democratic ticket has a sizeable lead: 29 percent say they would vote for the Trump/Vance ticket. Harris's lead in the presidential contest is similar to the margin enjoyed by President Biden in PPIC's July survey (Biden 55%, Trump 30%), before Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate.

  Asked how they view their choices of candidates for the 2024 presidential race, a majority of likely voters (56%) say they are satisfied with the options. Across partisan groups, more than half of Democrats (69%) and Republicans (55%) are satisfied with the candidate options, while 37 percent of independents are satisfied.

  "The Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz leads Republicans Donald Trump and J.D. Vance by a wide margin in the presidential race," Baldassare said. "Majorities say they are satisfied with the choices of candidates, up from less than four in ten in April of this year."

• Democrats lead in likely voters' overall preferences for US House candidates. Sixty-two percent of likely voters say they would opt for their local Democratic candidate if the 2024 election for the US House of Representatives were being held today, while 36 percent say the Republican candidate. In the ten competitive House districts identified by the Cook Political Report (districts 3, 9, 13, 22, 27, 40, 41, 45, 47, and 49), 55 percent favor the Democratic candidate and 41 percent favor the Republican candidate.

  Fifty-two percent of likely voters say that when it comes to November's congressional elections, they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual; 46 percent say they are less enthusiastic. Views vary across partisan groups, with Democrats (62%) more likely than Republicans (46%) and independents (38%) to say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual.

  "Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in local House district races by a wide margin, and a majority of likely voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year," Baldassare said.

• Schiff continues to lead Garvey in the Senate race. In the race for California's open US Senate seat, Democratic congressman Adam Schiff holds a 63 percent to 35 percent lead over professional baseball representative Steve Garvey. Schiff's margin is virtually unchanged from July (64% to 33%). Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say they are satisfied with their choices of US Senate candidates this year, with notable variation across partisan groups (68% Democrats, 59% Republicans, 44% independents).

  "Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey by a wide margin in the US Senate race and majorities say they are satisfied with the choices of candidates," Baldassare said.

• Californians are pessimistic about the state and national outlook. Majorities of Californians think things in the state are going in the wrong direction (55% adults, 53% likely voters) and that the state will have bad times financially in the next 12 months (61% adults, 57% likely voters). Meanwhile, overwhelming majorities think things in the US are going in the wrong direction (71% adults, 70% likely voters) and smaller majorities think our nation will have bad times financially in the next 12 months (61% adults, 54% likely voters).

  "Majorities of Californians think the state and nation are headed in the wrong direction and will have bad times financially in the next 12 months," Baldassare said.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,605 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.7 percent for the 1,071 likely voters. Interviewing took place from August 29-September 9, 2024. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.

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