• MEDMed this WeekMiddle East and North Africa

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios and key issues which will be the focus of the 10th edition of the Rome MED Mediterranean Dialogues (25-27 November) co-organised by ISPI and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Today, we shed light on the future of mediation efforts in the Middle East, with highlights from MED's Regional Meeting held in Milan on 3^rd and 4^th of October.

On 3 and 4 October, ISPI, Chatham House and the Center for International Policy Research co-hosted with the Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation a closed-door meeting to discuss the evolution of ongoing conflicts in the region and possible avenues to relaunch mediation efforts. With the participation of over 30 experts, the event focused on the actors involved, potential mediators, the interplay between local dynamics and inter-state competition, and factors that could facilitate or hamper these efforts. The discussion also paid close attention to mechanisms for conflict reduction and frameworks to foster sustainable understanding among the parties involved. 

We have asked experts from the ISPI and Rome MED Mediterranean Dialogues network to reflect on the mediation efforts in the region.

Perception of existential threats is hindering mediation talks

"One can never say that the possibilities for mediation are over, there has to be always hope. That said, what we are witnessing has not been seen for decades, indeed, this war is unprecedented in every sense, including the level of escalation. Looking at the current escalation between Israel and Iran, it is very clear that the perception is that of an existential threat on both sides. And when one has this kind of perception, it is very difficult to talk about mediation, peace and conflict resolution. The only way forward seems to be escalation and there is going to be escalation, in fact the worst days of this conflict are yet to come. However, as an international community, we must try to avoid it and be sure that when there is a window of opportunity to do so, we will be ready to pursue mediation efforts. Unless we keep up the momentum, we will see an unprecedented level of escalation in the region and the repercussions will also affect global security."

Majed al-Ansari, Advisor to the Prime Minister and Spokeperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar

Gaza: mediation efforts ground to a halt

"What we have witnessed in recent weeks is a form of suspension of negotiations to end the war in Gaza. After months of all kinds of efforts, during which even the United States was quite optimistic, the prospects of reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza with the help of Egypt, Qatar and the United States (US) have now diminished considerably. This is due to the worsening situation on the ground of the conflict with the opening of a further war front in Lebanon and the shift of Israeli attention from Gaza to Lebanon. Although the US stated a few weeks ago that it was working on a new proposal to submit to Hamas for the negotiating table, we have not heard any positive developments since then. It seems that all the efforts made in recent months have ground to a halt. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to be very dire, probably one of the worst in the world, on an unprecedented scale. The situation is also serious with regard to security and stability. Indeed, the expectation is that we will soon see a significant shift towards further extremism and radicalisation in the region."

Hesham Youssef, Co-Founder, Diplomeds; Former Ambassador, Egypt

The UN-led multilateral system is currently unable to lead and reach mediated solutions

The MENA region is facing a critical moment in terms of acute, unresolved conflicts and the future orientation of regional cooperation - or possible increased strife. This is partly a symptom of the rules-based order and the UN-led multilateral system, while also encompassing regional organisations, being strained and unable to lead on and reach effective and enforceable mediated solutions. Thus, the impetus and agency by regional states in the mediation are growing in importance, as they strive to ensure resilience and pursue conflict mitigation. On the other hand, among both the EU and its member states, the peace and mediation agendas have suffered setbacks as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and numerous simultaneous conflicts in the neighbouring regions. In light of these challenges, it is important to increase exchanges and improve coordination among states and independent actors from both the MENA and Europe, to pursue more effective, cooperative efforts in the various conflict contexts - on mediation approaches, methods and most importantly, on complementarity.

Saana Keskitalo, Senior Manager, Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation

The EU has to rethink its mediation efforts in the MENA region

"The European Union (EU) has always considered the MENA region of great importance for its geostrategic interests, especially as regards security, migration and energy. This has been particularly reconfirmed recently, with the Southern Mediterranean becoming central in Von der Leyen's new foreign policy vision as established in her political guidelines for the new Commission. As the international arena is more and more determined by a geo-strategic rivalry - with the West being challenged by Russia and China and their allies-, the EU will show renewed ambition in the Mediterranean. For mediation, this means that the EU would become more active and assertive, especially because in the last twenty years it has predicated most of its action on the UN whose crisis management and peace efforts are now in crisis themselves. In its efforts to also overcome this impasse, the EU should also invest more in regional partnerships with Gulf countries, several of which have recently been much more involved in mediation efforts in the wider Middle East."

Micheal Koehler, Grand Bargain Ambassador, Professor at the College of Europe, Bruges, Deputy Director-General, European Commission (ret.)

The "Road Map" for Yemen is still far

"The Yemeni conflict is marked by three overlapping layers: the internal dynamics of Yemen, which are being overshadowed at present; the regional context, which remains stagnant as Western powers hesitate to push forward the "Road Map" to avoid appearing to reward Ansar Allah (Houthis) for their actions - particularly attacks on ships linked to Israel and the US, which they justify in relation to Gaza; and international interests, which primarily view Yemen through the lens of the Red Sea crisis and its associated security and economic concerns, compounded by the inability to curb Houthi actions effectively. While the "Road Map" offers a framework for resolution, its focus has become restrictive, limiting alternative approaches. Although originally negotiated between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis before the 7^th of October, the Houthis' escalations in the Red Sea have made progress more difficult, as their actions are now seen as disruptive to global trade. Moreover, discussions have shifted from political solutions to resource allocation and humanitarian aid. As external actors deepen their involvement, particularly in support of the Houthis, Yemen risks becoming a new flashpoint akin to Syria, with spillovers into the Horn of Africa adding further complexity."

Yousuf Al Bulushi, Researcher in Regional Security and Political Economy and part-time lecturer al Modern College of Business and Science

The two faces of mediation in Yemen

"About mediation efforts in Yemen, there are constructive elements and destructive ones. The latter includes: the marginalization of the internationally-recognized government and of the Presidential Leadership Council from Saudi-Houthi talks, which weakens the negotiation process; the limits of the economic incentives strategy attempted by Saudi Arabia, since the Houthis have started attacks in the Red Sea and Israel despite they were in talks with Riyadh for favourable economic measures as part of a ceasefire package; the intertwining between Yemen and Gaza wars due to the Houthis' choices. On the other hand, constructive elements consist of: the ongoing dialogue between the Saudis and the Iranians, which is necessary but not sufficient to achieve a lasting ceasefire in Yemen; the tactical regrouping of the UAE-backed groups in Yemen, which shows more willingness to cooperation than before in the anti-Houthi camp; and finally, the role of tribal militias that, although weakened, could contribute to local de-confliction."

Eleonora Ardemagni, Senior Researcher Associate Fellow, ISPI

The war in Gaza imperils the success of a Roadmap for Yemen

"The Gaza war and its regional ramifications have widened the disconnection between the international and local realities in Yemen, and made it more difficult for the UN and international mediation efforts to bridge that gap. The Roadmap that stemmed from the Saudi-Houthi talks facilitated by Oman may well not see the day if the escalation in the Red Sea continues. A Yemeni-Yemeni political process under the UN auspices is more needed than ever but its chances are also lower than ever. In the absence of political perspectives and horizons, the concerned parties may prioritize military options instead of dialogue. This is usually when and where miscalculations driven by hubris happen and could lead Yemen into a relapse of the war. This is also when one should keep the channels open, double down on diplomacy, mediation to prevent such outcome, by acknowledging and engaging with the complexities and realities on the ground instead of pursuing pipe dreams."

Romain Grandjean, Regional Director, Middle East and North Africa, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

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