How conflict shapes women's roles and aspirations: Insights from Nigeria

By Lucia Carrillo, Mulubrhan Amare, Katrina Kosec, and Jordan Kyle

Conflicts affect everyone, yet the ways they affect men and women often vary significantly. In rural communities of Southwest Nigeria, where recent farmer-herder clashes have grown increasingly violent, fueled by dwindling resources and climate shocks, women have been taking on new responsibilities within their households and communities. With more men actively involved in armed groups, women often must step into roles traditionally held by men, such as running businesses or advocating for their communities. While these shifts offer opportunities for empowerment and independence, they also place considerable extra pressure on women. How do women themselves feel about this?

Our recent study in Nigeria-supported by the CGIAR research initiatives on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration and on Gender Equality (HER+)-focused on how these farmer-herder conflicts and the changes they bring shape women's economic and social aspirations. It offers valuable insights into the dynamics of women's empowerment in fragile settings.

Study objectives

The study explores how proximity to violent conflicts affects women's economic and social aspirations, as well as their roles in households and communities under conflict conditions. Specifically, we look at women's participation in economic, social, and political activities.

Women's aspirations are central to their empowerment because they influence the goals and choices that enable women to overcome barriers, seize opportunities, and drive meaningful change in their lives. By analyzing the link between conflict and aspirations, this study sheds light on how conflict could shift women's economic, social, and political trajectories.

The study combines geo-referenced conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project with individual survey data from a recent survey of 5,825 women across Oyo, Osun, and Ogun states in southwestern Nigeria. The survey captured information on women's income and social status goals, business ownership, labor and time use, and community engagement.

Conflict exposure is analyzed across three distance intervals-0-15km, 15-30km, and 30-45km-to explore variations in its intensity and effects (Figure 1). Since the survey data is taken at a single point in time, the analysis compares women in localities affected by farmer-herder clashes in the past two years with those unaffected in the past two years, limiting our ability to track how the same women change over time. By linking survey data with geo-referenced conflict data, the study provides a nuanced perspective on how conflict shapes women's lives and aspirations.

Figure 1: Frequency of violent clashes by distance to the nearest violent clash

Key takeaways

Women's aspirations: The study highlights a strong link between proximity to farmer-herder conflicts and lower aspirations. Lowered social aspirations are more closely associated with conflicts occurring nearby (0-15 km), likely due to disruptions to community structures and personal networks. In contrast, economic aspirations show a stronger sensitivity to conflicts farther away (30-45 km), likely due to the broader disruptions to economic systems like markets and trade over this wider interval.

Economic activities: Consistent with the idea that conflicts are shifting households' economic activities, women living near conflict zones (0-15 km) are more likely to operate their own off-farm businesses independently (without the joint ownership of their spouse or of another household member) but are spending less time in off-farm labor as conflicts intensify. Households are not overall more or less likely to own off-farm businesses in conflict-affected areas, suggesting that it is just the ownership structure within the household which differs. This highlights both adaptive strategies and constrained opportunities in conflict zones. While women demonstrate resilience by finding ways to generate income, broader instability and risks also limit what they can do.

Community engagement: Women closest to conflict-affected areas are less likely to engage in mutual aid societies, but more likely to support or be part of local protection groups. This reflects less emphasis on community collaboration compared to survival-focused alliances.

Political participation and safety concerns: Proximity to conflict is linked to increased membership in political parties-possibly as a platform to address issues arising from conflict. However, women report reduced engagement with government officials, potentially due to safety concerns and limited mobility.

Insights for policymakers and future research on women's empowerment

This research offers some important insights for policymakers and organizations working to support women in conflict-affected areas. First, programming in these settings that overlooks the psychological impact of conflict risks missing a critical dimension of its effects. Reduced social and economic aspirations could have long-lasting consequences, influencing whether women take advantage of opportunities to improve their own circumstances and those of their families and communities. Second, there could also be opportunities to enhance women's empowerment amid conflict, building from the enhanced roles they are assuming in the areas of political engagement and in sole business ownership. Understanding whether these behavior patterns endure over time-and identifying the types of programming that can effectively support women through these transitions-are key areas for future research aimed at fostering women's empowerment.

Photo: Members of a women's group in Nigeria. Credit: C. de Bode/CGIAR

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