Ranking Member Cassidy, Collins Seek Answers from BLS on Botched “Monthly Jobs Numbers”, Demand Accountability

WASHINGTON - U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), ranking member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, and Susan Collins (R-ME) are seeking answers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on its continued failures to produce accurate national jobs data, which has serious impacts on the American economy.

"BLS's inability to produce initially reliable data-especially when that data has broad market-moving implications and often is used as indicia of the strength or weakness of the American economy-is unacceptable," wrote the senators. "Even more confounding is why BLS continues to conduct its business in the same manner month after month when its initial data release is so often flawed."

"BLS cannot continue to process and release data in the same manner it always has and expect a different outcome," continued the senators. "Whether BLS needs to implement changes to how it collects data or to the timetable on which it releases the data it collects, it is clear that something must change so that those who make economic decisions based on the data BLS provides are able to do so with a reliable understanding of the actual facts on the ground."

Each month, BLS produces economic data showing national job gains and losses, changes in the unemployment rate, and the industries that were significantly impacted by the jobs numbers. For years, the agency has consistently produced unreliable employment data that is heavily revised weeks or months later.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, BLS revised its monthly jobs data 43 times and 53 percent of the time the revisions reflected less job growth than the initial reporting. The statistics were revised up or down by an average of 101,114 jobs per month. In August, BLS reported it dramatically overcounted job growth between March 2023 and March 2024 and revised its annual jobs numbers downward by a staggering 818,000 jobs. This was the largest revision to this annual data since 2009.

Under the Trump administration, BLS revised its data up or down by an average of 73,681 jobs per month. A majority of these revisions, 57 percent, reflected higher job numbers and better economic data than BLS's initial reporting.

In addition to BLS' issues in producing accurate economic data, Cassidy previously raised concerns following reports that a BLS official leaked confidential economic data to certain Wall Street traders. Cassidy called on BLS to address this breach and reform agency policies to ensure leaks of confidential, market-moving information do not happen again.

Read the full letter here or below.

Ms. McEntarfer:

We write you with concerns about the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) processes for gathering and disseminating economic information to the American people, including its process for ensuring that the information it releases is not just timely, but accurate at the time it is released.

As you are aware, BLS releases statistical information showing increases or decreases in the non-farm payroll (monthly jobs numbers) on the first Friday of each month. Each monthly release, regardless of how soon after the previous month's end, purportedly shows the change in the gross number of employed individuals in non-farm industries, the change in the unemployment rate, and the industries in which the gains or losses predominantly occurred during the previous month.^[1] Unfortunately, these monthly jobs numbers have long been subject to substantial revisions, painting an obscured picture of the overall economy.

For example, between February 2017 and December 2020 of the Trump administration, BLS's initial employment statistics had to be revised by an average of +/- 73,681 jobs per month, and were revised upward to show a more positive employment environment more often than they were revised downward.^[2] This trend has continued with more volatility into the Biden-Harris administration. Between February 2021 and September 2024 (the last month with a reported revision to the monthly jobs numbers), BLS has revised its monthly jobs numbers by an average of +/- 101,114 jobs per month-revising downward more often than not.^[3] In fact, BLS revised its initially reported number by more than 100,000 jobs on 13 different occasions during this period.^[4]

BLS's inability to produce initially reliable data-especially when that data has broad market-moving implications and often is used as indicia of the strength or weakness of the American economy-is unacceptable. Even more confounding is why BLS continues to conduct its business in the same manner month after month when its initial data release is so often flawed. Over the past eight years, during the entirety of the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations, BLS has revised its monthly jobs numbers by less than 10,000 jobs only five times.^[5] By contrast, it revised those numbers by over 100,000 on nineteen occasions.^[6] Clearly, BLS's procedures for releasing this data are not working.

BLS cannot continue to process and release data in the same manner it always has and expect a different outcome. Whether BLS needs to implement changes to how it collects data or to the timetable on which it releases the data it collects, it is clear that something must change so that those who make economic decisions based on the data BLS provides are able to do so with a reliable understanding of the actual facts on the ground. To better understand the breakdown in BLS's process and what efforts BLS will make to correct these errors, please answer the following questions, on a question-by-question basis, by close of business on November 28, 2024.

1. BLS consistently releases monthly job numbers on the first Friday of every month but makes numerous revisions to the monthly job numbers over the following weeks and months. Why does BLS believe there is virtue in releasing monthly job numbers so close to the prior month's end, especially when it knows those numbers almost always need multiple revisions?

1. Detail why BLS has been unable to produce more reliable data when it initially produces monthly jobs numbers?

1. What changes to BLS's data-collection process has BLS implemented or considered implementing to increase the reliability of its monthly jobs numbers?

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