EP. 50 - 2024 Election Aftermath: Key Takeaways for Corn Growers, with Brooke Appleton and Sadie Knight

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A change in leadership presents new opportunities AND challenges for America's farmers.

After an unprecedented election cycle, we finally know what the American political landscape will look like in the Congressional term ahead.

The election results include victories for more than 90 percent of the candidates backed by CornPAC, and have big implications for farmers across the country.

So in this episode of the Cobcast, we're going to analyze the takeaways of the Republican sweep of D.C. leadership, the effectiveness of NCGA's political strategy, and the key races that will shape ag policy in the new Congress.

We're joined by NCGA's Vice President of Public Policy Brooke Appleton, and Director of Grassroots and Political Strategy Sadie Knight.

And we'll discuss the implications of the new Congressional leadership, President-elect Trump's forthcoming cabinet selections, and pressing agriculture issues, particularly trade policy, that will be at the forefront as we move into 2025.

We'll also reflect back on lessons from this election cycle and the importance of rural votes in shaping the political landscape.

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Transcript

Brooke Appleton

So we know Republicans are to be in charge of Congress and the White House. So it was a Republican sweep. And so that really starts a lot of strategic discussion around how we approach the next Congress, how we approach the next administration.

But then also leaves a lot of questions, right, because there's just a lot of stuff we don't know as far as who's going to be in what positions, what policy priorities are going to be.

Dusty Weis

Hello and welcome to the Cobcast: Inside the Grind with the National Corn Growers Association. This is where leaders, growers, and stakeholders in the corn industry can turn for big picture conversations about the state of the industry and its future.

From the fields of the Corn Belt to the DC Beltway, we're making sure the growers who feed America have a say in the issues that are important to them, with key leaders who are shaping the future of agriculture.

So make sure you're following this show in your favorite podcast app, and sign up for the National Corn Growers Association newsletter at NCGA.com. I'm Dusty Weis, and today we are going to be discussing the results of this fall's election with two of our foremost staff experts and NCGA's Vice President of Public Policy Brooke Appleton, and Sadie Knight, our Director of Grassroots and Political Strategy.

Sadie, it's great to have you on the show. And, Brooke, welcome back.

Brooke Appleton

Thank you.

Sadie Knight

Thanks, Dusty.

Dusty Weis

Definitely a lot to pick through here. I swear I've actually probably not been sleeping as much as I should just because there's so much data and so much information to digest from the election that happened last week. We are recording this on November 13th. It is eight days after the November 5th election. Important to note that, of course, because there are still a few things being decided right now.

But when we were initially talking about scheduling this podcast, we were kind of careful to pick a date when we thought that we'd be sure that we'd at least have results from the presidential election. Now, it turns out that did not take as long as a lot of folks expected it to.

So take me through a quick recap. What happened on election Day? What do we know right now and what are we still uncertain about?

Brooke Appleton

Sure. And I'll jump in and then I'll let Sadie add in probably some details that I'm going to miss. But we had a policy call of kind of all the state associations the Thursday after the election, so two days after. And I kind of bucket it with what do we know, what do we don't know, and like what questions do we have?

And so just very top line, we know Donald Trump is going to be the next president. We know the Republicans are going to be in charge of the Senate. And they're undoubtedly going to be in charge of the House, but that exact number, so we don't know what the margin is going to be, is yet to be set as there some races that have yet to be called and Sadie can speak to some of those that we're watching here in a minute.

So we know those to be true. So we know Republicans are to be in charge of Congress and the White House. So it was a Republican sweep. And so that really starts a lot of strategic discussion around how we approach the next Congress, how we approach the next administration.

But then also leaves a lot of questions, right, because there's just a lot of stuff we don't know as far as who's going to be in what positions, what policy priorities are going to be. We know some of that, but we don't know exactly how it's all going to unfold. What's going to be top of mind, how's that all going to work?

So that's stuff that's going to come together. We're going to kind of know when we know. We can speculate on all kinds of stuff but there are certain things that, you know, we'll know when we know and then we can plan accordingly.

But I'll let Sadie speak just briefly, I think to, you know, we had a lot of races we were watching across the country, and I know there's a few yet to be called, some are really close.

Sadie Knight

Yeah. So there's 12 House races that haven't been called yet and essentially those 12 will determine who has the majority at the House, albeit the map and the math works out to what Brooke said, Republicans to take the House.

There's a few on that list that are what we consider champions of our priorities, and these are members that have stood up for our priorities in the House, that have championed policies that have sponsored/co-sponsored bills that we support.

And so we're still watching about four of these. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio's 9th District her race has not been called. She has been really helpful on our priorities this past Congress and has been a huge supporter. Mary Miller-Meeks, of course, championed the Next Generation Fuels Act, her race hasn't been called.

And then two in California, John Duarte and Jim Costa, who are key players in the ag space in committee and also in their respective committees outside of the ag committee. And so we're still watching those four, but essentially we're waiting to hear those 12 for the Republicans to solidify their majority at the House.

Dusty Weis

It's worth noting at this point that CornPAC, the National Corn Growers Association political action committee, supported 116 candidates in the 2024 election cycle. Of the races that have been called so far, and of those 116, 104 have won their races. Could be more by the time this is all said and done.

What would you say this says about NCGA's political strategy and the members of Congress who support our policy priorities?

Sadie Knight

So I would say that NCGA's political strategy is very methodical, it's very thought out. Our PAC is comprised of grower-members who make the decisions of where we give our money. We as staff advise them. We are constantly informing them with political analysts and pundits here in D.C. so that they are making the best decisions on behalf of our PAC.

And we support candidates who champion our causes, and that's the criteria. And so I would say that that winning streak, if you will is because of the grower input that we have in the decision making process.

It's also a reflection of the members' service they provide to their constituencies, and their ability to at times cross party lines and find bipartisanship on these issues.

We're supporting people who get stuff done here in DC, both on our causes and for their constituencies. And we bring in a diverse group of folks like growers to ensure that we're making the right decisions and make the right investments with those dollars.

Brooke Appleton

And I will say, you know, I've been around the corn world now for the better part of ten years and where we were ten years ago and where we are now is just light years on the PAC, on how we function internally. But also there's this big education piece about what are PACs and how do they operate, and where's our money actually going.

And, you know, the more we did that over time, the more response we got from our grower leaders in various states, the more comfortable they got investing in the PAC. And I will say, you know, within the last five years, we've seen that total amount of money that we're giving in a cycle double. And that's huge. That's impactful.

And that is very much a team effort from the grassroots all the way up to the staff.

Dusty Weis

Well and correlates directly with NCGA's ability to again advance those priorities there. You highlighted for us, Sadie, some of the races that we're still watching that haven't been called yet, but let's look at some of the races that we know a result for.

Are there any new faces that are going to be representing their districts in Washington that we're excited about, or any faces that are familiar to us that we're excited to see returning to Washington?

Brooke Appleton

There were definitely some races of some really key allies of ours that we were watching closely that we were very happy to see prevailed. At the top of my mind, I think about Angie Craig in Minnesota. She's a huge champion for us. She's a Democrat, she sits on the Energy and Commerce Committee and she's really, I would say, the only agriculture friendly Democrat on that committee for us.

And so she was a big one. We were watching closely and she won handily. That is typically kind of a swing district, it's always kind of tough for her to get reelected there. But I think she won by 6 or 7 points, which if I were her, I would feel really good about. And just maybe giving her a little bit of breathing room going into, you know, reelection in two years, which that all starts back up really quickly after an election cycle.

So one was definitely top of my mind. You know, Zach Nunn in Iowa, he's newer I think this was his first term in Congress but we were a little worried that he was going to lose, but he prevailed. But then as Sadie mentioned, you know, Marianne Miller-Meeks who's in her second term from Iowa, that race is still too close to call.

So those are a few that come to my mind.

Sadie Knight

Yeah. And I'll add in a few here too. Like we were really happy to see Don Bacon pull out. He's in Nebraska's second district.

But then outside of the Corn Belt, we were really happy to see Dan Newhouse, they called his race last night. He's the head of the Western caucus and has been a great ally and friend to the corn industry and to ag in general. Happy to see him pull out.

And also Don Davis over in North Carolina. He is the vice ranking member on the House Ag Committee, and he's just been a super great member to work with. He's been very open to production ag issues along with food issues and all that kind of get swept into the ag committee.

So we're happy to see those folks outside of the Corn Belt make their way back to Congress in January. As for freshmen members, I like to leave first impressions to the first 100 days, and if we talk again in 100 days, I might have some better opinions for you on who we're excited about.

Dusty Weis

Well, I'll look forward to that conversation, certainly it'll be a good one to have. But broadening out the conversation a little bit now from the House of Representatives to the balance of power in Washington, certainly it's safe to say that there has been a shift here from divided government to what looks like it's going to be Republican control of the presidency, the House, and the Senate.

And with that shift in power, of course, comes the new process of trying to determine who is going to head those particular institutions. So as we move from the election cycle to now determining the leadership roles of the various chambers and the committee assignments that go with them, what are we watching here? What's of note?

Brooke Appleton

So both the Senate Republicans and the House Republicans are holding their leadership elections here today.

The Senate has actually already completed theirs and Senator John Thune from South Dakota has been named the new Republican leader of the Senate. South Dakota, obviously a big agriculture state. We grow a lot of corn in South Dakota. Poet, who is the largest ethanol producer in the world, is headquartered in South Dakota.

So we feel pretty good about John Thune being the head of the Republican conference in the Senate.

The House is also holding their leadership elections today, and we really don't anticipate much change there.

We expect Mike Johnson to still be the speaker, the nominee, to be the speaker. Keep in mind, the leader of the Senate and the leader of the House have to be voted on a floor vote once the new Congress starts on January 3rd. But we anticipate Mike Johnson to be the nominee. And Steve Scalise to continue to be the majority leader.

Both of those members are from Louisiana. And then Congressman Emmer from Minnesota will be in that third spot in the majority whip spot on the House. Now the fourth spot, the conference chair slot over on the House side, now that is probably going to be vacated by Elise Stefanik, who's a member from New York. President elect Trump has nominated her to be his UN ambassador to the United States.

So that will be the only probably difference in the top four on the House side. And then we'll expect that to be the leadership for the incoming Congress.

Dusty Weis

Now, this last congressional term was memorable for a lot of reasons, but one thing that sticks out to me was those several weeks in the fall of 2023, when House Republicans had the majority, but because the majority was so slim, it made it difficult for them to select a leader.

Indications are that their majority might be even slimmer this term perhaps, we're still waiting to see, but do we anticipate any more such leadership drama?

Brooke Appleton

You know, I think I mean, for the most part, from what I can tell now, I mean, a lot can happen between now and January 3rd. I think the House leadership is probably pretty set. What's interesting is, though, is that margin is going to be tight.

And, you know, Sadie said earlier, we're not even sure what the number is yet. I don't they haven't gotten to 218 yet. We already have three different House members that have been tapped by the incoming president to be in his administration, so they're dwindling away at their assumed majority before it's even set.

And so, yeah, that number is going to be close. They're going to have a couple vote probably margin and there will be infighting within the caucus that will still cause, you know, some disruption.

But I feel like the leadership spots are probably pretty safe depending on what could happen. And, you know, the incoming president, Donald Trump, he's going to be influential there, right? I think they're all going to want to stay in his good graces, because he has a very loud voice and a very big stage.

Dusty Weis

Well, let's shift our focus to the top of the ticket then, because the elephant in the room here is Donald Trump. We're getting a new president, but we're also getting an entirely new cabinet of leaders that are going to carry out the White House's priorities and vision for the next four years. Who or what should we be watching?

You already mentioned the House representative from New York that President Trump has appointed as his UN ambassador, but who else should we be watching as president-elect Trump makes selections for his inner circle?

Brooke Appleton

Yeah, we have a list of kind of key positions that we're obviously interested in that we work with quite frequently. We're not speculating publicly on who those people might be. But, you know, as those come into place, you know, we're going to be doing our own evaluation about their record if they have one, how we think they might be on our issues moving forward.

And then, of course, you know, they all are subject to the confirmation process in the Senate, which can be lengthy. So we'll be prepared whenever it gets to that point. But, you know, at USDA, obviously we have our eyes on who the secretary is going to be, who the deputy secretary is going to be.

And then a couple of the undersecretaries that we work with most closely, you know, the Trade and Foreign Ag Service undersecretary and then the one for the Farm Production and Conservation, or the FPAC, as we all affectionately call it now.

So we'll have our eyes on those and a number of other positions across all the departments. And then there's some non-confirmed ones to that, of course, are important as well, but those will trickle in later. Obviously you kind of get the top of the pyramid first, and then everyone kind of fills in behind.

Dusty Weis

NCGA came into this election with its eyes on a number of issues. The Farm Bill, Free Trade, Next Generation Fuels Act, growing new markets for corn, just to name a few. There's a lot. But what is the new political landscape look like for some of these issues, and how are you approaching them headed into 2025?

Brooke Appleton

Yeah, I mean, I think the issue probably most top of mind for folks is trade. It's one of our biggest demand drivers that we have. I think there will be both opportunities and challenges with the incoming Trump administration on trade policy.

We've heard him talk in the press about tariffs and using tariffs as leverage or as a way to boost domestic industries, but we also know that that can have a negative effect on agriculture and most likely the economy.

So we're excited, again, we know there will be opportunity and challenges. But, you know, we've really tried to focus on designing a proactive approach on trade and really all the issues that we care about that will hopefully resonate with the new administration and kind of give them some positive things to work on as we move into next year.

Again, I think we'll approach all of the issue sets, but I know trade is really top of mind. I know that just with the talk of tariffs throughout the campaign and kind of what happened when Trump was president previously and what we saw with the 2018 trade war.

And, you know, as he put tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as a wide range of imported products from China, in response, China and other nations imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US products and that obviously targeting agriculture commodities.

So we've seen that before. And so we're just trying to think how we can focus on some more positive, proactive market access items that we can also work on.

Dusty Weis

It's definitely, it's one of those things where the work is certainly not done. And I would imagine those strategies are still being formulated as we move forward here. But that'll be a big job that we approach in 2025.

Brooke Appleton

Yeah. And I think one of the biggest differences, I mean, we have a bit of a different economic landscape right now that we really are going to need to press upon this new administration. Corn prices are low and inputs are high, and tariffs would only compound this issue.

The second point is Brazil and Argentina are ready to swoop in and claim market share. They were not as big of a competitor back in 2018, but they definitely are now.

And then lastly, just pointing out, you know, we really don't have a place to put corn or beans for that matter, should markets like Mexico or China be shut off. There's no market equivalent to the volume of those two, and there are not prospective trade agreements that would unlock the size of new markets.

So, you know, I think just talking through some of those things early on and sending those messages early on will be really important.

Dusty Weis

Lest we get the cart before the horse here, it's important to note that the current term of Congress is going to be back in Washington. They'll be in session for five weeks before the end of the year. They call this the "lame duck" session because lawmakers go into it with the new balance of power hanging over their heads.

But as we look ahead to these five weeks being in session here, is there anything that we anticipate getting done or any action that we're hoping to see on some of our priorities there?

Brooke Appleton

So we definitely have priorities going into the lame duck, and I'm happy to speak to those. But I feel pretty strongly that the president-elect is going to have a lot of influence here at the end of the year. And if he says yes, then it happens. And if he says no, then it probably doesn't.

So as leadership elections wrap up today, I'm assuming that they will start mapping out what the next 4 or 5 session weeks will look like before we get towards that end of the year, which I think they're set to adjourn on the 20th of December.

But he's going to play a role. And that's all going to kind of play out before our eyes in the next week, I would say. But for us, you know, there's definitely some things that we would love to see done at the end of the year.

We have been working on a nationwide year-round E15 fix for the better part of a decade, if not more, and that is something we would just love to see happen here at the end of the year, there is a compromise bill that has been introduced in the Senate and House, and we've got sponsors on both sides.

We've got a lot of support, and we're really hoping that if there is an appetite to include that at the end of the year, that if there's a window, man, we're going to jump through it. The other piece of it, of course, Congress is working on getting a farm bill done, a full five year farm bill. We're not there yet.

We've only really seen one version of that bill come out of the House Ag Committee. The Senate has yet to produce any text to kind of counter what the House did. So we're not really sure how that's going to shake out. But there's going to be a lot of discussion in the coming weeks or so.

Can they get a full five year bill done before the end of the year, or does this turn into another extension into next year?

But then there's also, because of kind of what has happened across the board with low prices and high inputs, as I already mentioned, you know, just the need for pure economic assistance for farmers across the country. And that has really risen to the top of the list for a lot of groups. And I know we're part of this discussions as well.

So there's going to be a lot of that talk here at the end of the year, too. And that's a priority for us as well.

Dusty Weis

You know, this is a time of the year, particularly after an election, but in any year, where you kind of start to look back at the year that's gone by on the calendar and try to take away lessons from it, try to parse some things that you can use in the year going forward here.

And so you two are just a couple of the many, many experts that NCGA has working on its behalf in Washington, you're our experts in Washington. As you look back at the 2024 election, everything that led up to it, is there anything that surprised you about the past year and the way that things have shaken out here?

Sadie Knight

I hate to use the word, but like unprecedented. I mean, when I mean, I may be wrong, but when in our lifetime has a presidential nominee stepped aside for someone in their inner circle to-

Dusty Weis

And sort of coronated almost. And paved the way for, yeah.

Sadie Knight

Yeah, it's pretty jarring.

Brooke Appleton

Like less than a month away from their convention.

Dusty Weis

And with 100 days and change leading up to the election itself.

Sadie Knight

Yes. And then again, like, same nominee raised more than $1 billion and she still didn't win. Like I think there's going to be a whole new conversation about campaign fundraising and winning elections and how money is used and resourced and allocated.

I really think that this election cycle is really going to reshape how campaign strategists and political strategists approach elections. I think it's going to set a new precedent.

Brooke Appleton

I mean, I will say, and we've had a lot of conversations around our table here. And, you know, there's 11 of us here in the D.C. office, and we don't all have the same, you know, personal politics, right? So we got a lot of opinions and a lot of things that people were pointing out and stuff.

And I think what everyone agreed with is that you knew exactly what Donald Trump was running on, you knew what his three issues were. And you couldn't necessarily say that for Kamala Harris.

And it changed from week to week a little bit. Right? I think that's kind of what we distilled it down to in, you know, the 11 people that sit in this office. So I think he was very clear about what he was for. And it resonated, obviously. I mean, there hasn't been a Republican who's won the popular vote since. . .

Dusty Weis

I think George Bush in 2004.

Brooke and Sadie

2004. Okay. So 20 years.

Dusty Weis

Has it been 20 years? Oh my gosh.

Brooke Appleton

Yeah, yeah. So anyway, I think we've all, anyone who works in politics and even if you don't, I think we've all been reflecting on what we saw and maybe what is changing a little bit or not. But I kind of feel like since I've been in Washington almost 20 years, and I feel like it's been unprecedented since the day I got here, I'm kind of, you know, I'm kind of like, ready for some just basic, normal stuff.

Dusty Weis

But what even is basic and normal in 2024? But I guess we'll find out in 2025. And that's what makes the job super interesting. But I'll say this if I had a nickel for every time that I had heard the word "uncertainty" on the news over the last year, or in a discussion, I wouldn't need to still be making podcasts for a living.

I probably still would. But with that much said, these election results do give us some indication of what's to come in the term ahead. So what can we feel more certain about, would you say, going into 2025?

Sadie Knight

I think that one piece of certainty is that Americans are really being affected by and their opinions are being affected by inflation and the economy. Those kitchen table issues, those kitchen table topics still reign, for lack of a better term, in the political arena. People are maybe more introspective about the debt they are in and their future and their family's future.

And I think that the folks that voted, voted with those type of issues in mind.

Brooke Appleton

And I think, too, I mean, I'll caveat that with, I don't know that "certainty" is a word I would use for any of it here. I mean, yes, we saw a Republican sweep, we kind of know who the players are, who they're going to be as far as Congress goes and the administration will start coming together.

But I think we saw this movie in 2016, 2017, when the first Trump administration started. Republicans also controlled Congress, but the midterm was pretty messy for them. So there's going to be a lot of pressure on these first two years. And, you know, the infighting I'm sure has already begun.

I mean, I can't imagine they're all on the same page. They're all coming at it from their perspective and their respective districts. So I don't know if the word "certainty" is one I would use at all, especially in this line of work.

Dusty Weis

Yeah, yeah. So buckle your seatbelts seems to be the takeaway therent, but one thing that I did want to note that was really interesting to me is that just as president elect Trump did four years ago, he drew more strength from rural areas than his Democratic opponent did.

According to the Associated Press's Votecast, which examines exit polling, nearly half of voters, 45%, say that they live in the suburbs. About half of those voters went for Harris, 46% chose Trump. In rural areas, Trump won about 6 in 10 voters, 60% of folks in small towns in rural communities, while Harris won about 6 in 10, 60% of urban voters.

What does this say about the power of the rural vote?

Brooke Appleton

I think it's so interesting because I do think that people kind of like to ignore the "flyover states," if you will, or the middle of the country. I mean, I've lived in Washington now almost 20 years. I meet a lot of people, I say I'm from Missouri, and they kind of look at me like, "Okay, Missouri, Saint Louis?"

And I'm like, that's in the state. But I'm from the other parts of the state. You know, there's a lot of that. And I will say too, leading up to the election, I would be in conversations and people would be like, "There's no way Kamala Harris could lose. There's just no way." And I look at them and I say, "Have you left the Beltway in the last two weeks?"

And the answer was usually no. And you spend any amount of time 60 miles outside of DC and it's a different story. And so I think we all kind of live in our own bubbles in some ways, right? Sadie and I have the luxury of being from rural America, understanding it. You know, and still going there multiple times a year.

So we have a bit of a different perspective for sure.

Sadie Knight

Yeah. And I would say too, I don't come from a particularly politically charged family, which is shocking because I work in DC now. But my mom voted the first time I ever voted in a presidential election, and so not a hugely politically charged family.

And I had a conversation with a family member a few weeks ago, and they didn't completely understand the dynamics between the Electoral College and the popular vote, which albeit is incredibly confusing.

And so we walked through and like had the conversation and they just asked me flat out, they're like, "Does my vote even matter?" And I had to kind of walk through with them why the Electoral College was set and how it balances out that kind of urban/rural balance of power and the vote power there, and reiterated to them, like how important it is to show up on November 5th or cast an early vote.

And as we can see in this election, the popular vote in the electoral vote said the same thing and kind of gave some double confirmation of how incredibly important it is to show up and vote. And so I guess, like my response to that is, don't let the city folks get you down.

Just because there's a higher population concentration in some areas doesn't mean that your vote is lesser or your voice is lesser. It's the beauty of how we set up our democracy.

Dusty Weis

100%. And I've got to say, it has been really, really interesting getting to pick both of your brains here. I've certainly learned a lot today. It's informed my expectations for the year ahead and I imagine a lot of people are going to find it really useful. But one thing that you can count on, one thing, Brooke, that we can be certain about is that come what may, no matter who's in power, our mission remains the same.

And it's to help growers economically by expanding market demand through addressing trade barriers and exploring the new opportunities that are out there. And folks can be certain that that work will continue. So we appreciate your taking the time to catch us up on all the latest.

NCGA's Vice President of Public Policy Brooke Appleton, and Sadie Knight, our Director of Grassroots and Political Strategy, thank you both for joining us on the Cobcast.

Brooke Appleton

Thanks Dusty.

Sadie Knight

Thanks.

Dusty Weis

And thank you for listening. We hope that you'll join us again next month for another episode of the Cobcast: Inside the Grind with the National Corn Growers Association. If you're on X, you can follow @NationalCorn for more news and updates from NCGA.

Visit NCGA.com to sign up for the association's email newsletter and make sure you're following this show in your favorite podcast app.

The Cobcast is brought to you by the National Corn Growers Association, with editing by Matt Covarrubias, and it's produced by Podcamp Media, branded podcast production for businesses PodcampMedia.com. For the National Corn Growers Association, I'm Dusty Weis.

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