Insights into the Intense 2024 Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is proving to be an active and intense period, with several significant storms already making landfall across the US. As of October, the season has already witnessed five hurricanes, including the powerful Hurricane Milton, which struck Florida yesterday's night. With more than seven weeks remaining until the season officially ends, forecasters are on high alert for additional storms.

In today's article, we will explore the current state of the hurricane season, provide historical context of past storms, learn what lies ahead, and highlight the importance of being prepared in case a storm hits.

Recent Developments

This season has already seen significant storms, including:

• Hurricane Beryl: The most powerful hurricane recorded so early in the season, made landfall in Texas in July, causing extensive damage.

• Hurricane Debby: A Category 1 storm that hit Florida's Big Bend region on August 5, inundating the area with heavy rainfall.

• Hurricane Francine: Made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Louisiana on September 11, causing flooding in New Orleans and leaving over 400,000 residents without power.

• Hurricane Helene: A Category 4 hurricane that struck Florida's Big Bend on September 26, leading to catastrophic flooding and storm surge impacts across the Southeast.

With Milton being a Category 5 storm at its peak, this year's activity underscores a concerning trend where storms are not only more frequent but also increasingly intense, which scientists attribute partly to climate change.

What's Next?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring additional systems in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Leslie and a developing storm east of Africa that could become Tropical Storm Nadine. According to the NHC, there's a 30% chance that the disturbance will form a cyclone in the next two to seven days. While it's expected to be short-lived with no threat to land, the emergence of Nadine highlights the potential for further activity as we approach the end of the season.

As for Hurricane Leslie, it is currently swirling in the central Atlantic, remaining distant from land. The Hurricane Center expects Leslie to continue on its current trajectory over the next few days. Forecasters anticipate some additional strengthening of the storm, followed by a gradual weakening into early next week.

As of now, the 2024 hurricane season is officially classified as above average, with the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric reaching 127, indicating a season marked by both intensity and frequency. Typically, a season sees an average of 14 named storms; if Nadine forms, it will bring the total to 14.

Climate Change and Its Impact

Scientists point to climate change as a notable factor in hurricane season changes, due to warmer ocean temperatures. These elevated temperatures fuel more powerful storms, leading to:

• Increased Intensity: While the overall number of hurricanes has not significantly increased, the storms that do form are becoming stronger, with higher wind speeds and more severe storm surge. The rapid intensification observed in hurricanes like Milton, Helene, and others emphasizes this trend.

• Heavier Rainfall: As storms absorb more moisture, they lead to severe flooding. For instance, Hurricane Helene's journey towards land resulted in devastating rain that affected areas far inland.

• Rising Sea Levels: Higher sea levels result in more dangerous storm surges. The combination of storm surge and higher tides intensifies the risk for coastal areas, particularly those that were already vulnerable.

Recent studies suggest highlight not only that storms are stronger, but also that they are gaining strength more rapidly. This rapid intensification makes it challenging for communities to prepare and evacuate in time, significantly increasing the potential for disaster.

Historical Context

The frequency of landfalls this season is notable. According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, since 1851, only eight seasons have recorded five or more hurricanes making landfall in the US. The record for most mainland U.S landfalls in a season is six, which has happened three times. It last happened in 2020 (Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta and Zeta) in addition to 1985 and 1886.

Previous Seasons: In the last decade, the number of hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. has fluctuated, with 2020 being particularly active. However, 2022 and 2023 saw only one hurricane landfall each, with significant damage despite their lower frequency. The current season stands out due to the number of storms impacting land within such a short timeframe.

Why So Many Landfalls This Year?

The unique atmospheric conditions this year have contributed to an increased number of landfalls:

• El Niño Effects: Unlike last year, there isn't a strong El Niño, which tends to create unfavorable conditions for storm development in the Caribbean. The absence of a strong El Niño has allowed more storms to form and move towards the US.

• Record-Warm Water: The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic have been experiencing unusually warm water temperatures, which are conducive to hurricane formation and intensification. These conditions have driven storms like Milton and Helene to rapidly intensify before landfall.

• Changes in Atmospheric Patterns: A more expansive Bermuda high has influenced storm tracks this year, steering storms towards the U.S. rather than out to sea, as was common in the previous year.

Preparing for Future Storms

As the 2024 hurricane season unfolds, coastal communities must prioritize preparedness in anticipation of potential storms. With the threat of hurricanes looming, it is essential for companies in hurricane-prone areas to adopt proactive strategies to ensure their operations can withstand the impact. Effective preparation can make a significant difference in minimizing disruptions and maintaining safety during storm events. You can learn how hurricanes impact the oil industry here.

Before the Storm

One key strategy for businesses is to maintain open communication with fuel suppliers to stay informed about demand fluctuations and planned site closures. This proactive approach allows better fuel planning, ensuring that resources are available when needed most. Additionally, refueling vehicles at retail stations before a storm is advisable to conserve private fuel reserves for post-storm use, as availability may be limited in the aftermath of a hurricane. However, it is important to stay away from panic buying!

To protect fuel supplies and ensure operational continuity, investing in watertight seal caps for tanks and hoses can prevent contamination. Keeping sandbags on-site to block water access to fuel tanks is also recommended. Securing loose items around the facility helps minimize hazards, and checking electrical systems can prevent outages.

Developing an Emergency Response Plan with a reliable fuel supplier is essential for ensuring fuel availability, particularly for backup generators, to maintain business operations during and after severe weather events. Click here to learn more how to get prepared.

After the Storm

After a hurricane, it's crucial to maintain clear communication with your fuel supplier. Regular updates about site conditions, power status, and fuel demand are essential for ensuring timely deliveries. If your site has lost power, inform your supplier, as this is typically necessary for pumping fuel. Additionally, check your fuel tanks for excess water using tools like an Automatic Tank Gauges (ATGs) or water-finding paste. If you find significant water, avoid ordering or dispensing fuel and arrange for its removal to prevent equipment damage.

Before placing a fuel order, verify your inventory levels to ensure adequate space for delivery, and communicate any changes to your supplier. Also, assess the condition of your trucks, as relocations or damage may alter your fuel requirements. Reporting any concerns will help your supplier support your needs effectively. For sites relying on generators, share consumption rates to aid in planning and timely fuel deliveries, ensuring equipment continues to operate until power is restored. Click here to learn more.

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