SBE - Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council
11/01/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 11/01/2024 10:13
Ugly October Jobs Report
By SBE Council at 1 November, 2024, 11:55 am
by Raymond J. Keating -
No matter how you slice and dice the latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau Labor Statistics, the numbers are ugly. And no, it's not really about Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The establishment survey, which can be affected by temporary work stoppages, saw a gain of only 12,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October versus September. This amounts to statistical noise, and essentially is a no-growth number.
At the same time, the unemployment rate - based on the household survey which wasn't affected by the hurricanes - was unchanged at 4.1 percent. So, isn't that good news?
Well, as I have noted before, the unemployment rate is largely useless, as it can be far off in terms of telling us what's actually happening with employment and the labor force. October was one of those glaring months when the unemployment rate was, in effect, misleading.
It turns out that the labor force declined by 220,000 in October, employment fell by 368,000, and unemployment increased by 150,000. Yikes. The unemployment rate was unchanged due to the decline in the labor force.
The labor force participation rate declined from 62.7 percent in September to 62.6 percent in October, and the employment-population ratio fell from 60.2 percent in September to 60.0 percent in October.
Indeed, compared to a year earlier, the labor force participation rate was down - from 62.7 percent in October 2023 to 62.6 percent in October 2024. And the employment-population ratio also declined from 60.3 percent in October 2023 to 60.0 percent in October 2024.
No, there's not much to cheer about in this latest employment report.
Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His latest books on the economy are The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist, The Weekly Economist II:52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist and The Weekly Economist III: Another 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist.