Cuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports

Cuba's Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports

by Steven Zahniser, Lila Cardell, Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus, and Constanza Valdes

Cuba's economy, which has been struggling since 2016 and fared poorly during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, is facing lower tourism revenues, decreased agricultural output, energy shortages, and double-digit inflation. This continuing economic downturn is limiting Cuba's ability to import agricultural products. Along with reductions in domestic agricultural production, which have weakened Cuba's ability to supply its own food, Cuba faces a growing food security problem. To assess the extent of this problem, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) applied the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model. Results indicate that an estimated 12.8 percent (1.4 million people) in Cuba did not meet the daily threshold of 2,100 calories per capita in 2023. Due to uncertainties regarding the measurement of Cuba's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the report's authors considered a scenario with adjusted GDP per capita and estimated that 37.8 percent of the population (4.2 million people) was food insecure. Although Cuba's declining agricultural production increased the need for agricultural imports, the country's ongoing challenges in earning foreign exchange limit its ability to do so. Under these circumstances, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba increased in 2021, 2022, and 2023 but were concentrated in a single commodity, chicken meat.

Keywords: Cuba, food security, agricultural production, agricultural trade, remittances, tourism

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