Maritime Market Report 4Q24

Factors driving a potential maritime market shift

The maritime market's current capacity is keeping up with demand, but change could be on the horizon. A new U.S. administration, the upcoming Chinese New Year, and persistent geopolitical events are three factors that could significantly impact the marketplace.

Let's take a look at what these changes may mean for you:

Volume spikes could lead to rate increases (at least short-term)

The new U.S. administration takes office in January, coinciding with the annual Chinese New Year. These two events could cause shipping volumes to increase more than normal. Discussions around potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are creating a lot of speculation. As a result, many shippers are frontloading goods into the U.S. and booking extra capacity to stay ahead.

This is happening at the same time shippers are preparing for Chinese New Year, which is arriving earlier than in previous years (at the end of January).

Currently, maritime capacity is adequate, but shipping volumes could increase soon, potentially driving spot rates higher in the short term. However, it's hard to predict exactly how much volume and rates will rise. While demand remains strong, it's still too early to determine the full extent of the potential increase. If rates don't rise significantly, carriers may resort to blank sailings, as seen in the past, to help boost rates.

East Coast shipments may take longer to reach their destination

A lot of the geopolitical events we've seen in recent months are still ongoing into 4Q. This includes the continued threat from the Houthis in the Red Sea, as well as the ongoing conflicts in Israel and Ukraine.

As the Houthis persist with their threats to commercial vessels in the region, shipping routes are being adjusted to avoid the Suez Canal and Red Sea, with vessels taking alternate paths to Europe and the U.S. East Coast. With alternate routes being used for safety, transit times could be extended, so it's important to adjust your lead times accordingly. That said, the transit times themselves haven't changed much compared to previous quarters, as these geopolitical risks have been consistent.

ArcBest is your trusted partner for navigating the maritime market

With access to 90% of transpacific carriers, ArcBest can help find the capacity you need. Our strong relationships with ocean liners give us a unique advantage, allowing us to navigate any potential disruptions seamlessly.

We offer flexible shipping options, including full-container-load (FCL) and less-than-container load (LCL). And once your cargo arrives in the U.S., we can transload it into various modes like FTL, LTL, intermodal or expedite shipments to reduce transit times. For urgent needs, we provide international air freight solutions.

Contact us today to help shipping your next ocean load.

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