Drought’s Onslaught

Ken Dewey, former professor of climatology at the University of Nebraska, once told attendees at the Nebraska State Irrigation Association/Nebraska Water Resources conference that Nebraska's climate is second only to Siberia in terms of its extremes. The rapid hastening of drought since July may not be what Dewey had in mind, but it still shows how quickly conditions in Nebraska can change in a short period of time. Figure 4 shows two drought monitor maps: the most recent map from October 29 and one from July 30, three months ago. The maps show how quickly drought conditions overtook the state this year.

Drought conditions in July were limited to the Panhandle, a few counties in the Southwest, and a tier of counties along the southern border with Kansas. Twenty-seven percent of the state was either abnormally dry or under some type of drought. Just 3% was affected by a severe drought or worse. Fast forward to today. Now 100% of the state is either abnormally dry or experiencing some type of drought. Seventy-six percent of the state is under a severe drought or worse and almost 8% is in an extreme drought. The dramatic turn can also be seen in soil moisture conditions reported by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service in their weekly crop progress reports. Last week's report showed topsoil moisture supplies rated 48% very short while 44% of subsoil moisture supplies rated the same. In contrast, the last week of July showed only 7% of topsoil moisture supplies and 6% of subsoil moisture supplies rated very short. Recent pasture and range condition ratings also show stress from drought. Sixty-three percent is rated in either poor or very poor condition.

Fortunately, drought's onslaught came too late to have much effect on this year's crop. Farmers and ranchers are expected to harvest a record corn crop and large soybean, hay, and forage crops. There's an old saying that "if you don't like the weather in Nebraska, wait 10 minutes it will change." And maybe change is occurring. Rains last week and over the weekend should help. And more precipitation may be coming. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts that much of Nebraska has a good chance for above average moisture in November. Hopefully, the forecast is correct, and rain events continue to build the soil moisture profile for next year's growing season.

FIGURE 4. NEBRASKA DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln