Subcommittee Chairman D’Esposito Probes FEMA’s Storm-Modeling, Forecasting Accuracy in the Wake of Hurricane Helene Devastation

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Today, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY), chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emergency Management and Technology, sent a letter to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), probing the agency's use of advance forecasting and rainfall modeling in preparation for Hurricane Helene, as well as other storms. Reports have indicated FEMA's initial modeling may have contributed to the agency's lack of preparedness to respond in Southeastern communities, especially in North Carolina, in the wake of the devastation caused by Helene. Read more from NBC News.
In the letter, Chairman D'Esposito stated, "I have heard reports that many Southeastern communities were underprepared and unaware of the potential for destructive flooding in the region. The heartbreaking stories and the stark images of destroyed homes, roads, and businesses have captured the attention and the sympathy of the Nation. At least 220 people have died, with many who remain missing and vulnerable. In North Carolina, where the devastation has been especially acute, residents have reported that the severity and scope of the flooding took them by surprise. A local sheriff in Asheville, North Carolina, Quentin Miller, declared: 'To say this caught us off-guard would be an understatement.'

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Today, Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY), chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emergency Management and Technology, sent a letter to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), probing the agency's use of advance forecasting and rainfall modeling in preparation for Hurricane Helene, as well as other storms. Reports have indicated FEMA's initial modeling may have contributed to the agency's lack of preparedness to respond in Southeastern communities, especially in North Carolina, in the wake of the devastation caused by Helene. Read more from NBC News.
In the letter, Chairman D'Esposito stated, "I have heard reports that many Southeastern communities were underprepared and unaware of the potential for destructive flooding in the region. The heartbreaking stories and the stark images of destroyed homes, roads, and businesses have captured the attention and the sympathy of the Nation. At least 220 people have died, with many who remain missing and vulnerable. In North Carolina, where the devastation has been especially acute, residents have reported that the severity and scope of the flooding took them by surprise. A local sheriff in Asheville, North Carolina, Quentin Miller, declared: 'To say this caught us off-guard would be an understatement.'

Chairman D'Esposito continued, "It is understood that forecasting may fluctuate as a storm progresses; however, underestimations and inaccurate forecasts may harm those communities that are unknowingly vulnerable within the storm's path. In a natural disaster like Hurricane Helene, the rapidly changing and dynamic conditions prove to be a challenge in emergency management."

Chairman D'Esposito concluded, "Regarding FEMA's pre-positioning efforts, homeland security advisor, Liz Sherwood-Randall, stated earlier this week that FEMA prioritized pre-positioning resources and supplies to Florida before pivoting to North Carolina. As you know, community resiliency depends on accurate forecasting and the pre-positioning of resources in advance of a natural disaster. Buncombe County Manager, Avril Pinder claims that water was requested at the state level, 'even before the storm started,' yet had been delayed, further exacerbating the water shortage present in Asheville, North Carolina."

Read the full letter here.

Among other requests, Chairman D'Esposito urged FEMA to provide information detailing its advanced forecasting models, pre-positioning of resources, and coordination with government partners surrounding storms; the accuracy of its advance forecasting and rainfall modeling for storms; and how FEMA has adjusted its techniques after Hurricane Helene, in particular. The deadline for the requested information is October 18.

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