CGIAR System Organization - Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers

11/28/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 11/28/2024 14:30

Bridging Science and Action: Bringing Understandings of Vulnerability and Climate Attribution Closer

Authors: Emmanuel Raju, Joyce Kimutai, Laura Rabago

Surface temperatures in Africa are rising more rapidly than the global average, with human-induced climate change being the dominant driver. The losses and damages resulting from intensifying extreme weather events continue to threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions across the continent. Agri-food systems bear the brunt of these impacts with the FAO reportingthat agricultural losses account for 23% of disaster-related losses across all sectors.

Kenya, like many other nations, continues to grapple with the consequences of severe droughts and likely compounding with heat that leave devastating social, economic, and health impacts in their wake. These extreme events drive food insecurity throughout the country. 942,000 cases of acute malnutrition were reported in children between 6-59 months, 2.4 million livestock were lost, and the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance rose to a staggering 4.25 million as of 2022 (NDMA,2022). Loss of crops, increased dependence on food aid, and the forced abandonment of historical livelihoods-fishing, farming and pastoralism-are just some of the many additional consequences experienced by the agri-food sector.

As the numbers of people exposed to climate-related disasters are expected to increase, so does the need for understanding the factors that drive a community's vulnerability and exposure to human-induced climate change. To address this need, climate scientists are integrating vulnerability assessments into climate attribution science (CAS) to inform climate adaptation decision-making and enhance climate action that can help respond to loss and damage.

Understanding Climate Attribution Science (CAS)

Climate attribution science is a new subfield of climate science that provides evidence of the role of human influence on the climate to increase our understanding of changes in frequency and magnitude of climate and weather events. CAS aims to answer the question of whether and to what extent human-induced climate change is contributing to these changes. For instance, analysis of large-ensemble climate data and impact modelling has shown us that low agricultural yields can be attributed to human-caused climate change.

However, current attribution studies predominantly focus on climate hazards affecting the global North and on understanding changes in weather patterns, often in isolation from the socio-economic and political factors of the communities most impacted. This oversight is significant, as vulnerability and exposure to climate change are heavily influenced by factors like poor living and working conditions, access to healthcare, access to water infrastructure, poverty, governance challenges, and more. This narrow focus on climate hazards creates a discourse that deflects responsibility for human actionsthat exacerbate climate impacts experienced by both human and natural systems.

In a recent webinarfacilitated by the CGIAR Climate Impact Platform, Dr. Joyce Kimutai of the Centre for Environmental Policy and the Kenya Meteorological Department, discussed the political dimensions of attribution science. She emphasized the urgent need for additional ways of assessing loss and damage, particularly in regions in Africa that have limited data availability.

While the methodological development in quantifying the hazard component of changing risks from extreme weather has made significant strides, the issues of vulnerability and exposure are rarely treated as components of disasters, if mentioned at all. This raises a crucial question: How can advances in CAS be combined with a human-centered understanding of vulnerability and exposure to quantify and attribute loss and damage and create climate-resilient societies?

The CAV-Kenya Project: An Interdisciplinary Approach

The Climate Change Attribution and Vulnerability (CAV-Kenya)project is working to disentangle the drivers of weather and climate-related disasters in Kenya. Funded by the DANIDA Fellowship Centre and Denmark's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the innovative project is developing a novel methodological framework to enhance our understanding and responses to climate-related disasters. The project is led by Emmanuel Rajufrom the University of Copenhagen, and Joyce Kimutai, with support from other key partners including the University of Nairobi, Imperial College London, The Kenyan Red Cross and the Danish Meteorological Institute.

The project objectives include:

  • Examining the role of anthropogenic influence in heatwaves in two cities (Nairobi and Mombasa); and droughts combined with heat in the rural areas of Isiolo in Kenya using CAS
  • Exploring and examine how and what factors of exposure and vulnerability influence differential impacts in these various communities
  • Developing a new methodological framework by integrating findings from CAS, vulnerability and exposure
  • Examining how disasters are communicated and attributed to climate change by different actors in Kenya
  • Strengthening interdisciplinary research capacities in Kenya on cutting-edge CAS and social science vulnerability assessment methods

The team met for a first in-person meeting to kick off in September 2024 at the International Livestock Research Institute's headquarters in Nairobi. CAV-Kenya is positioned to make significant advancements in CAS and vulnerability studies that will support climate action.

Project Outcomes and Their Implications for Climate Action

With the recent conclusion of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) COP29, the urgency of understanding the interplay between human-induced climate change and the underlying socio-economic factors that exacerbate vulnerability and exposure, and subsequently the scale and level of impacts, is evident. By investigating how alternative exposure and vulnerability conditions have influenced the impact of extreme weather on communities in Kenya, the project aims to ensure that climate actors accurately represent the intricate connections between climate change, hazards and vulnerability.

CAV-Kenya is taking the first step towards creating a climate change inventory of impacts in Kenya, laying the groundwork for other nations facing similar climate change related challenges. The lessons learned from the project will not only inform policy but also foster targeted adaptation strategies that can be tailored to the agri-food sector. By identifying key vulnerability and exposure risks to climate change, the project can provide actionable insights that can be used by food security initiatives to guide resource allocation for climate change adaptation in agriculture.

By merging scientific developments in climate attribution science with social-political understandings of vulnerability, CAV-Kenya is paving the way forward towards a more comprehensive CAS and vulnerability framework. Its work will be essential in shaping future loss and damage conversations, bolstering climate action, and supporting those most affected by climate change.

Interested in following the progress of CAV-Kenya? Check out our project webpageand subscribe to the newsletter from the Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research.

The 5-year project is funded by the DANIDA and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark and administered by the DANIDA Fellowship Centre.

Further Reading and Resources

  • Boyd, E, Chaffin, B, Dorkenoo, K, Jackson, G, Harrington, L, N'Guetta, A, Johansson, E, Nordlander, L, Paolo de Rosa, S, Raju, E, Scown, M, Soo, J & Stuart-Smith, R 2021, 'Loss and Damage from Climate Change: A New Climate Justice Agenda', One Earth. 22;4(10):1365-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.015