I Took a Deep Dive Into Trend Forecasting: Here’s What I Learned [+ Expert Tips]

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Trend forecasting keeps consumers happy and businesses relevant. If you can accurately spot trends in your industry, you can adapt your offering to improve customer satisfaction and drive business growth.

If you're new to trend forecasting, this article will serve as an ultimate guide. I'm exploring the subject of trend forecasting in full, including its benefits, types, and tips on how to make trend predictions accurately. I've put this article together with the help of experts who work in trend forecasting daily.

Table of Contents

• What Is Trend Forecasting?
• Why Is Trend Forecasting Beneficial?
• Types of Trend Forecasts
• How to Forecast Trends & Analyze Them
• Trend Analysis and Forecasting Tips

Officially, trend forecasting is generally completed by trend analysts, such as market analysts or consumer insights managers. However, trend analytics and forecasting can also be completed by sales and marketing teams, growth experts, and product development managers.

Why Is Trend Forecasting Beneficial?

Trend forecasting is beneficial for a number of reasons, but let's look into three top benefits.

Product Development

You can use trends to develop products. Some trend forecasting should occur before starting a business or launching a new product or service. Generally, before product development, you want to understand current trends to see if there's a need for it.

To demonstrate this simply, I'm using Google Trends and computers.

As you'd expect, demand for products like "AI Computers" is up and growing since 2022.

However, the same is not true for computers with Blu-ray. The trend line has been declining since 2008; today, it's at an all-time low.

With the benefit of hindsight, the Blu-Ray trend is more like a fad. Trend forecasters need to be wary of this. While interest peaked, it wasn't stable, nor did it remain a point of interest for any length of time.

Use your trend forecasting analysis to determine whether the market is currently looking for a product and try to pre-empt whether it's a product that will stand the test of time. That said, fad products might be ideal for some brands!

Strategic Planning

From your trends research, you can alter your business strategy by pivoting your strategic direction to meet them.

Your planning might revolve around a product or service, or your trend forecasting may be focused on consumer behavior so you can plan to serve your audiences better.

For example, in HubSpot's State of Consumer Trends survey, we explored digital consumer shopping trends and found:

• Social media is the top product discovery channel.
• Buying directly via social media is up year on year.
• A quarter of social media users have bought a product on social media in the past three months.
• Consumers shop on their phones more than any other device.

If you know how consumers look for your product or service, you can create a plan to better serve them.

For example, an ecommerce brand that isn't using social media might want to reconsider since a quarter of users are searching on social media. The trend for buying on social media is up, and social media also serves as a top-of-funnel discovery.

The statistics above are very high level. If you were changing your strategic plan based on findings, you would take your trend predictions further. For example, you might look at demographics, focusing on your biggest spenders.

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Marketing and Spend Allocation

With trend analysis and forecasting, you get data about your industry. You now know what you're going to invest in. Your next task: taking it to market.

When you have a data-driven plan, you can allocate resources and spend accordingly.

The best way to demonstrate this benefit is to share an anecdote from Ryan Murphy, the Sales Operations Manager at Upfront Operations.

Murphy uses AI and predictive analysis to forecast demand and sales. Here's how he did it: "We used Salesforce Einstein to analyze three years of a client's data and found seasonal trends in their revenue, predicting 15-20% higher sales in Q4. We increased marketing spend, which drove 25% more revenue that quarter."

With the data from AI and predictive analysis, Murphy was able to advise his clients on their marketing budget forecasts so they could target the right people with the right messaging.

Types of Trend Forecasts

When people think about trends, they tend to think about short-term and long-term trends, though there are also micro and macro trends within industries or communities as well as quantitative and qualitative trends.

I'll define each.

Short-Term Trends

A short-term trend is as it sounds. This type of trend tends to emerge and fall in a relatively short period of time. Generally, short-term trends occur in fast-moving industries like tech or fashion.

The Blu-ray player is quite a good example of a short-term trend.

Long-Term Trends

Unlike short-term trends, long-term trends stick around. Below, I've used the example "gaming computer."

At a glance, the trend looks less exciting because we're not seeing huge increases in interest; what we are seeing is steady and certain interest.

Micro Trends

Micro trends are an interesting concept. The idea behind a micro trend is that it's a smaller, niche trend that may start or grow within a community.

Sometimes, micro trends become macro trends.

Macro Trends

Macro trends are large trends. They might be global or shape an entire industry.

A good example of a micro trend that became macro is the content of "plant-based." Look at the trend for "plant-based" in the graph below.

Awareness of plant-based diets has been increasing since 2002.

In 2011, awareness increased, but the concept was still a micro trend. At that point, the term was likely known to a community or group of people, such as vegans and vegetarians.

Between 2011 and 2020, the trend for plant-based grew significantly.

In 2020, the trend plateaued somewhat. At this point, the concept became more of a macro trend and is commonly known in the food industry. In 2022, McDonalds released its first plant-based burger.

A micro trend does not need to influence or become a macro trend to be valuable. Forecast trending isn't always about chasing what's reaching the masses. In many cases, it's about discovering specifically what your target audience wants and how to reach them.

Quantitative Forecasting

Quantitative forecasting is perhaps the most obvious type of trend forecasting. It involves statistical models such as historical data, sales, and regression analysis.

Quantitative forecasting lends itself well to AI analysis, which accelerates data analysis and provides more accuracy than human interpretation. AI and forecasting can likely be used within existing tools, too. It's worth looking at your CRM to see if you use AI to do some of your data analysis.

AI and forecasting within your CRM are certainly worth exploring. In our sales survey, 75% of salespeople using an AI-powered CRM said that AI integrations help them drive sales.

HubSpot CRM has forecasting capabilities that bring data and forecasts straight to the CRM so you don't have to mess around with spreadsheets.

Qualitative Forecasting

Qualitative forecasting is really important and perhaps overlooked against quantitative forecasting. Qualitative forecasting includes methods like surveys and market research.

Qualitative forecasting provides a more in-depth understanding of customer and market behavior which can help businesses account for more angles and potential curveballs.

How to Forecast Trends & Analyze Them

Here are some steps to consider in the trend forecasting and analysis process.

1. Forecast trends using free tools.

There are many places to gather data on trends. I like to use Google Trends. It's free to use and can be a great place to start your research.

You add a keyword into the search bar and hit search. Upon hitting search, Google Trends will give you a lot of data about your search term and how it's trending.

Google Trends brings trend data on your particular keyword and includes:

• Interest by region.
• Related topics and queries.

You can categorize your data by:

• Country (or worldwide)
• Date
• Category
• Search type (e.g., web, images, news, YouTube, etc.)

You can also export keywords using rising and top trends.

If you add Glimpse into your trend forecasting stack, you'll get even more data. You can start using Glimpse free of charge and it provides more data on Google Trends. Glimpse also markets itself as the tool to use if you want to discover trends.

Tools like Glimpse and Google Trends show you the history for search terms and can help you predict how the trend might continue, but this data is not the only historical data that you should look at. You also have a lot of insightful trend data within your business.

2. Consider social media.

Your audiences will lead you to the topics and trends they're most interested in via social media.

Most social media platforms have some form of trending topics. You can research what's happening there, but you must remember that these trends are happening right now, which isn't what you necessarily want when you're forecasting.

You might find a slightly more nuanced discussion with platforms like Reddit and Quora. Trending and controversial posts might give you an indicator of what people need and want from your business.

3. Examine historical trends.

Trend forecasting experts look at the historical trends of their business. Where possible, you want to look back at years of data to establish things like:

• Trend lifecycles.
• Seasonal trends.
• Popular products throughout the year.
• Sales trends.

Examining this kind of data gives you insight into how consumers buy year in and year out. Some businesses will spot trends that repeat each year. If you have this data, then you know how to adjust marketing spend to advertise the right products just as your audience needs them.

The beauty of historical quantitative data is that you've got it already, and it's likely stored in tools like your CRM. HubSpot's forecasting, for example, gives you easy access to:

• Business forecasts.
• Team and prospect forecasts.
• Revenue by month or quarter.
• And so much more.

Plus, the forecasting tool is customizable and easy to use.

Forecasting within your CRM can be helpful for sales forecasting, too. You can learn more about accurate sales forecasting and forecasting analytics here.

4. Monitor competitors.

I recently wrote an article on AI in demand forecasting and when writing this article, I connected with Jessica Bane, director of business operations at GoPromotional. Bane spoke about the value of looking at competitors. She described how combining competitor analysis and sales data helped her create a "detailed picture" of future demands.

Bane credited this way of working as "sharpening forecasts."

Although no business should rely entirely on competitor analysis, I do see the value of examining how competitors think about products, services, and marketing to see what you can learn or if it helps you build a wider picture of the market.

5. Consider qualitative data and ask your audience.

A few years ago I had the pleasure of interviewing Yuval Ackerman for a HubSpot article on the anatomy of sales emails. During this interview, Ackerman told me about a great tactic to build an understanding of audiences and potential new trends.

Ackerman spoke about the benefits of brands having owned Facebook groups or channels, Slack, or Discord, for their top fans. While these channels are primarily about creating community, they're a trove of qualitative data to help with your forecasting.

If you're engaged with your community, you can even run ideas past your top fans and ask their opinion. Your audience can help you design your next product or service, and you'll probably find they're more invested in the finished product, too.

Trend Analysis and Forecasting Tips

Now that we know what trend forecasting is and why it's beneficial, it's time to dive into the how-to. In this section, I've provided examples of how to forecast and analyze trends. I got a lot of help from experts for this section.

Tip 1: Consider cultural and/or macro trends.

I've already covered macro trends and how micro trends can become widely recognized. Jay Barton, CEO & Founder at ASRV, has more to say on this subject.

Barton says, "Trend prediction isn't just about following the latest industry chatter; it's about understanding the broader cultural shifts that influence behavior and buying decisions.

Trend forecasting allows them to innovate and transmit the up-and-coming needs of consumers before they go mainstream. In sportswear and fitness, this means staying on top of such movements as wellness, sustainability, and even technology in driving changes in people's approach toward fitness."

What I like about this: Barton's point about the up-and-coming needs of consumers before they go mainstream is excellent. As aforementioned, the goal is to catch a trend, perhaps even a micro trend, before it's already driving the industry or community.

Tip 2: Invest in quality.

Justin Smith, CEO at Contractor+, has a simple tip that is not to be overlooked. He says, "For business owners looking to forecast trends in their own industry, invest in quality data analysis."

When it comes to data and quality, two things are true:

1. You need the right tools to do the work well.
2. You need to feed in good data to optimize your output. This is especially true for AI.

The notion of quality data is critical for trend forecasting. Without it, you can't be sure that your trend predictions are accurate.

What I like about this: When researching demand forecasting, sales forecasting, and AI usage in forecasting, I consistently found tips and insights from professionals who talk about the importance of quality data. This tip simply cannot be ignored.

Tip 3: Think holistically.

Justin Smith provided two more great tips on trend forecasting, including the importance of using holistic data.

Smith says, "Use both historical data and real-time insights to spot emerging patterns. This involves regularly engaging with your customers through surveys or social media to understand their needs and expectations better. Predictive analytics tools can also provide valuable foresight into future consumer behaviors."

What I like about this: As I put this article together, I naturally came across qualitative and quantitative data and methods for trend forecasting using social media and sales data. It links nicely to Ackerman's advice about having a community to ask questions and conduct surveys to help understand what your audience wants.

Tip 4: Anticipate what's coming (don't just react).

Finally, Smith leaves us with one more tip: anticipate trends.

He says, "Remember, the goal is not just to react to changes but to anticipate them, positioning your business as a leader rather than a follower."

What I like about this: Forecasting trends can be about finding something that you can deliver better than anyone else in your industry. In marketing, this is sometimes referred to as category design. I think this tip is particularly strong for smaller brands who need to stand out as the experts in a (potentially) micro or upcoming trend.

Don't Sleep on Trend Forecasting

I hope you found reading this article as informative and inspiring as I did writing it. It's packed full of tips and details about trend forecasting so you can at least get started exploring trends in your industry.

Many of the tools mentioned in this article are completely free, and many of them are public (social media, for example), so you can get started without risk.

Topics: Sales Forecasting

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